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drewprops
Space Pirate
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2008-10-10, 14:52

Let's play Futurists for a moment.

We're at the beginning of a period of time with depressed markets around the world. It's a branching away, in time and space, from what WIRED magazine called "The Long Boom"... an alternate reality that nobody wanted to visit.

As the dominoes continue to fall, and as a "new world reality" is revealed before our eyes, I believe that we're currently in a reactive mode (see the thread on the Perfect Financial Storm). Our investments are diminished, our jobs are threatened, all of the environmental and fiscal and political bogeymen are creeping up to get us and I believe that many of us are squeezing our eyes shut and waiting for the scene to change.

Arrayed as we are, around the globe, we might be able to proffer postulates on potential problems that may confront us. We might begin to put all the pieces on the table and see where the paths lead... what the ramifications of each successive "level" are and where they might take us. We're probably not a bunch of Harry Seldons, but we ain't entirely stupid.

So, as an example of the type of postulating I'm talking about:

Will innovation take a hit?
Are we staged to enter into a moribund period where innovation stagnates because the consumer economy can no longer fuel R&D? From medicine to computing... think this through, play best/worst case scenarios.

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
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turbulentfurball
Right Honourable Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Québec
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2008-10-10, 15:05

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Will innovation take a hit?
Are we staged to enter into a moribund period where innovation stagnates because the consumer economy can no longer fuel R&D? From medicine to computing... think this through, play best/worst case scenarios.
There won't be a major release of Windows for over 5 years. Oh, wait...

I do think that there will be major advances in fuel efficient design of cars, electrical appliances, developments of fossil fuel replacements and the like driven by the cost of oil (which looks likely to drop as a by-product of the global downturn in the economy, and therefore a reduction in demand... which is almost irony)

As for what could take a hit; that could be anything and everything that's not a core need. Who knows.
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ezkcdude
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2008-10-10, 15:09

Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post

Will innovation take a hit?
Are we staged to enter into a moribund period where innovation stagnates because the consumer economy can no longer fuel R&D? From medicine to computing... think this through, play best/worst case scenarios.
^^^As a professor who relies on government research dollars - trust me when I say I'm scared witless (to be euphemistic) about the situation. In times of crisis, basic science is not at the top of the priority list. The only thing that may be of some comfort to the American scientific community is that the rest of the world may actually be in the same boat.
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Kickaha
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2008-10-10, 15:10

I suspect the following markets will be the ones to do best:

Consumer staples (duh).
Cash-rich IT institutions (Apple, Google, IBM, MS), everyone else is probably toast.
Cash-rich healthcare entities.

So the question becomes - are the cash-rich IT companies going to continue innovating? My bet is on yes. It will be more refined, however, and the *clever* companies will grow, while the *brute force* companies will flounder.

ie, buy AAPL.

ezkcdude is right, however, in that basic science always takes a hit when money gets tight. If it can't be sold *soon*, it won't be funded. This is likely to pinch some of the most promising energy technologies just peeping their heads up.
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ezkcdude
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
 
2008-10-10, 15:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kickaha View Post

ie, buy AAPL.
I wouldn't be so sure. As much as Apple is a CE company now, even iPods and iPhones may begin to look like luxuries people can't afford.
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jdcfsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Florida
 
2008-10-10, 15:13

Quote:
Originally Posted by turbulentfurball View Post
There won't be a major release of Windows for over 5 years. Oh, wait...

I do think that there will be major advances in fuel efficient design of cars, electrical appliances, developments of fossil fuel replacements and the like driven by the cost of oil (which looks likely to drop as a by-product of the global downturn in the economy, and therefore a reduction in demand... which is almost irony)

As for what could take a hit; that could be anything and everything that's not a core need. Who knows.
Completely agree. R&D and innovation will only flourish under the current economic system. Companies that are stable and people looking to make changes will find ways to work more efficiently considering the circumstances. As far as fuel efficiency goes, the Volt is around the corner and I think that's just the tip of the iceberg.

According to CNN, global recessions typically last roughly 18 months. By their count we're about 8 to 9 months in. As we start to come out of this recession start looking for a boom in innovative products and design. The future's wealth won't be in real estate or defense contractors, it'll be in green tech and (if the car companies can actually get serious and divert a majority of their R&D to AFVs) the auto industry.

90% of statistics can be made to say anything 50% of the time.
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Kickaha
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2008-10-10, 15:14

Pretty much any CE item is a luxury, but people buy to console themselves in strange ways.

An MP3 player and/or cell phone is rather considered necessary kit these days.

I'm sure the entire CE market will take a hit for a while, but of the CE companies, who is most likely to weather it out? Remember, this isn't about making next quarter's revenue sheet, this is about survival over a few years. Cash-rich companies will have a much better chance.
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Kickaha
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2008-10-10, 15:16

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdcfsu View Post
According to CNN, global recessions typically last roughly 18 months. By their count we're about 8 to 9 months in.
So, that means they started talking about a *global recession* 8 months ago??? I call shenanigans. They're just covering their butts. They didn't know any more than anyone else did, and didn't make it news until the markets freaked.

We're still in the meltdown stage at this point. Start the 18 month clock when that stops.
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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Upstate South Carolina
 
2008-10-10, 15:24

I have a hard time with the idea that we would stop innovating. While it won't be on a grand a scale as can be with billions of R&D funding there will always be people building a better mousetrap. Making the toilet paper a little softer and the soap last a little longer.

Sure we might not get some of the inventions and refinements that could be, I don't think we will head backwards on the road if innovation.

Home electronics kits will become all the rage again!

Louis L'Amour, “To make democracy work, we must be a nation of participants, not simply observers. One who does not vote has no right to complain.”
Visit our archived Minecraft world! | Maybe someday I'll proof read, until then deal with it.
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jdcfsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Florida
 
2008-10-10, 15:25

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kickaha View Post
So, that means they started talking about a *global recession* 8 months ago??? I call shenanigans. They're just covering their butts. They didn't know any more than anyone else did, and didn't make it news until the markets freaked.

We're still in the meltdown stage at this point. Start the 18 month clock when that stops.
No, any economist will tell you that you can't see a recession except for hindsight. In the past the textbook definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP loss. However, things are different now and that's not as accurate as an indicator. According to the people they were getting their info from, who do nothing but study and write books on recessions, based on current indicators it started sometime earlier this calendar year. Look at it this way, markets start to capitulate and rebound about 4 months before the end of a recession. Some people I've seen think that yesterday's massive selloff at the end of the period, coupled with this mornings massive selloff, reached that capitulation point. All that said to say it's not over yet, it's going to continue to get worse, but by the middle of next year we'll be in a much better position.

90% of statistics can be made to say anything 50% of the time.
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Axl
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Ca na da
 
2008-10-10, 17:01

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdcfsu View Post
No, any economist will tell you that you can't see a recession except for hindsight.
It's difficult to predict the exact time, but you have to wonder about economists who were bullish as late as last year…

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdcfsu View Post
In the past the textbook definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP loss. However, things are different now and that's not as accurate as an indicator.
It's difficult to officially label a recession when the government cooks the books. Hoooooo! Okay, i'm out…
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drewprops
Space Pirate
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2008-10-10, 17:03

Be sure not to get hung up on the tech industry and the innovation aspect as we play out the Scenario.

What are the other dominoes, and how will they fall?

For instance:
The crashing market results in job layoffs.
Job layoffs result in X.
X results in Y.


Solve for X and Y.
And Z.
And Z^2.
And so on.

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
Captain Drew on Twitter
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Moogs
Hates the Infotainment
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: NSA Archives
 
2008-10-10, 20:42

I don't know if there's a technical measure for it but this whole thing looks a hell of a lot *worse* than any recession I've ever seen. I think people are afraid to use the "D word"... as in global depression. They happen so infrequently and the markets change so much in between that perhaps a new definition is needed; I think we're at the start of one. Maybe three months in....

...into the light of a dark black night.
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thegeriatric
geri to my friends
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Heaven
 
2008-10-10, 20:59

Worst i've seen in my lifetime.

Survival's the name of the game, batten down the hatches, and weather the storm.

There will inevitably be casualties along the way, unfortunately.

I used to be undecided.....But now I'm not so sure.
No trees were harmed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced.
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drewprops
Space Pirate
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2008-10-10, 22:43

Casualties.

Okay, here's another exercise in the Scenario.

Let's say that one aspect of G's casualties are jobs.

Let's say that unemployment goes up.

Way up.

How far must unemployment levels rise before American citizens are willing to assume skilled and unskilled labor jobs at market rates?

What is the point at which the influx of angry, hungry Americans pushes contented illegal aliens out of the market? At what point do we steal the jobs back from illegals?

And when it happens, what do THEY do?

Do these displaced illegals (the ones from this continent that is) simply move back south of the border, or do they resort to some new, previously unimagined strategy?

Imagine that strategy for us.

What would YOU do if you were in that situation?
Think it through. Try to imagine yourself in that situation.

What would your strategy be?
Would it be legal?
Would it be illegal?

Would it be criminal?
If so, would it be violent? Nonviolent?

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
Captain Drew on Twitter
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jdcfsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Florida
 
2008-10-10, 23:17

Holy crap. Deep questions for late on a Friday night. But I honestly don't think it'll get that bad. There will be more job losses, but nothing that will result in that situation I don't think.

But even if there were massive losses, I don't think American's would take typical migrant/unskilled jobs. Two reasons: we're too proud and too lazy. And besides, we're entitled to have the government pay us if we can't work, right? Isn't that the American way?

90% of statistics can be made to say anything 50% of the time.
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