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Question about US Election campaign
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2016-04-28, 14:37

Naturally. It would be his fault, after all. I mean, come on!
  quote
Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
 
2016-04-28, 14:51

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
I'm still holding out a small hope that a nuclear bomb will land on Washington DC sometime between now and August.
I hope that TSA extra screening works out great for you!
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709
¡Damned!
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Purgatory
 
2016-04-28, 15:01

Eh. Nobody would use their real name on a public forum and then say things like that, so I'm sure Ken's safe.


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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2016-04-28, 15:26

BOOOOOOOOM!

Emergency vote!

I don't mind that extra screening. I eat lots and lots of beans and eggs before I fly.
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709
¡Damned!
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Purgatory
 
2016-04-28, 16:10

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryson View Post
I think Trump is going to win.

And as a result of that, the USA will become a international laughing stock. A punchline.

That's pretty sad, but it's been coming for while. I'll feel bad for you when it happens.
Prophecy.
  quote
Brave Ulysses
BANNED
I am worthless beyond hope.
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
 
2016-04-28, 16:13

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
I'm still holding out a small hope that a nuclear bomb will land on Washington DC sometime between now and August.
Well, that's not very nice.




As this process has gone on, I've come around to Trump. By no means in a way that I support him or ever will, but in the sense that I think in the long run his run in this campaign will lead to a resetting of our political establishment on both sides. It's actually been refreshing in a weird way to see a politician (even if he is a new one) just speak his mind and not always cling to the party line and beliefs. We do need more of that. It's been refreshing to see Bernie do that as well. He (un)fortunately just hasn't been as inflammatory and media drool inducing so he hasn't received the same attention as Trump.


I do think Hillary is a bad candidate and I think this race between her and Trump will be a lot closer than some think. There are a lot of low and lower middle class white people out there across the country who are going to support him very strongly. he's actually more socially progressive than most of the republicans have ever been, he's pro military (which most americans are), and he is a business man and a "builder".... americans love thinking they are the builders of the world... even though we have been left in the dust. The other thing is.... the Northeast is a very very weird political environment...... it may lean "democratic" but it isn't really liberal. I see the very real possibility of some major upsets in the Northeast for Trump.... he could very well flip NY, and if that happens... that may be all he needs.
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709
¡Damned!
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Purgatory
 
2016-04-28, 16:42

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
I'll be more specific. Ted Cruz is an effective, disciplined and strategic organizer. He's run a data-driven campaign, and organized his state campaigns and delegates better than anyone's ever seen. He's also skillfully used his father's pastoral connections to build an effective base of evangelical support, which is crucial to winning the GOP nomination.

Based on his CV, which I think is the best of all the candidates, and the skill he's shown at leadership and managing such a vast, nationwide effort with such entrenched opposition on all sides, he would get my vote if I were an American.

But anyone who thinks Ted Cruz is going to outlaw abortion or same-sex marriage, or really enact any kind of "Christian sharia law" once elected, is a lunatic.
Speaking of lunatics, since you mentioned it (them?), Ted's father is a Dominionist, and even wrote a book about it. While my 'Christian Sharia' barb may have been a tad hyperbolic, it's not too far off from Dominionism, you have to admit.

Is Ted a Dominionist? I don't know, but he's never distanced himself from it, and he never shies away from making sure we all know that he's more religious than patriotic. All voodoo aside, the guy is pretty much reviled by everyone he's ever met, at least everyone he works with. The dude eats hair ffs.

Last edited by 709 : 2016-04-29 at 07:26.
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2016-04-28, 16:54

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses View Post
Well, that's not very nice.
It's called a "joke" BU. Relax a little.
  quote
addison
Formerly “AWM”
 
Join Date: May 2009
 
2016-04-29, 09:05

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Ulysses View Post
The other thing is.... the Northeast is a very very weird political environment...... it may lean "democratic" but it isn't really liberal. I see the very real possibility of some major upsets in the Northeast for Trump.... he could very well flip NY, and if that happens... that may be all he needs.
Being in New Jersey I have certainly heard that for awhile. I'm not sure he would be able to pull off NY but you never know. I think he'd get New Hampshire despite the influx of Massholes. He should be able to get Maine and has a good shot at PA. It's possible he could win Jersey but I wouldn't put money on it. CT is a lost cause probably. At the very least he will pin her down in states that she was planning on walking away with and make her spend money in an expensive media market. We usually never get candidates here. Occasionally the Dem. candidate will drop in for a fundraiser with Bruce or Bon Jovi or some hedge fund manager but that's it.
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2016-05-02, 16:13

Perhaps I am alone in thinking this, but right now I feel that if it comes down to Donald and Hillary, Donald has a better than fair chance.

Politics is weird, people remember and forget often nonsensical things, and vote antithetically to their own best interests as perhaps judged by the outside. Personalities that should offend, sometimes don't, sometimes they're lauded precisely because they seem to make no attempt at dignified decorum.

In Toronto we elected Rob Ford just because we were sick of the rest of them. The establishment candidates didn't know what hit them - leading up to 2010, none of the political pundits were able to see it, not 18 months before, or even 12, but with 3 months to go, he was in an insurmountable position. And, all around southern Ontario municipal incumbents were getting trounced - which is rare in Municipal politics in this part of the world. But everyone decided, simultaneously it seems, that they were sick and tired of their municipal leaders.

The same thing could befall Hillary if Donald's brand is sufficiently positioned outside "the establishment".

How this works out for various congressional and representative races, I'm not fully certain. I think some of the early Republican fear is not so much that he can't win the White-House, but maybe that he doesn't drag enough party candidates along by his coat-tails.

.........................................
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Luca
ಠ_ರೃ
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Minnesota
 
2016-05-02, 22:08

That's exactly what happened in Minnesota when we elected Jesse Ventura governor. The establishment candidates were so completely uninspiring that a lot of people said fuck it and voted for "The Body." It ended up being a very close three way result with Ventura winning under 40% of the vote, mostly at the expense of the Democratic candidate.

I'd be interested to see how an "outsider" fares when on a major party ticket. I find both Hillary and Trump to be undesirable for different reasons.
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Frank777
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Toronto
 
2016-05-02, 23:23

Quote:
Originally Posted by Luca View Post
I find both Hillary and Trump to be undesirable for different reasons.
Which is the most logical and informed position.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu View Post
Perhaps I am alone in thinking this, but right now I feel that if it comes down to Donald and Hillary, Donald has a better than fair chance.
Yes, he probably does.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu View Post
...and vote antithetically to their own best interests...
Trump (and also Sanders supporters) aren't voting against their own interests. A large number of Americans have figured out that the system is rigged against them and in the favour of a privileged elite. And they want to break the system.

I have no doubt that there are a number of university grads who have been indoctrinated enough to think that Venezuela is some kind of capitalist setup and Sanders' ideology can actually work. But I know far more Trump supporters and I think they believe they are using him every bit as he's using them. They simply want to break the stranglehold on power that many of the elite families have, and they see him as someone who can do that. Even when it's pointed out that he's one of those elites. The fact that the establishment has made Trump out to be an anti-pc villain is enough for them.
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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2016-05-03, 06:41

Don't be so sure I was referring to both Trump and Sanders, or either of them exclusively. Different reasons for different folks.
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Chinney
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Ottawa, ON
 
2016-05-03, 09:03

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu View Post
[...]

In Toronto we elected Rob Ford just because we were sick of the rest of them. The establishment candidates didn't know what hit them - leading up to 2010, none of the political pundits were able to see it, not 18 months before, or even 12, but with 3 months to go, he was in an insurmountable position. And, all around southern Ontario municipal incumbents were getting trounced - which is rare in Municipal politics in this part of the world. But everyone decided, simultaneously it seems, that they were sick and tired of their municipal leaders.

[...]

And how did that turn out for you?

  quote
kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2016-05-03, 10:01

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
And they want to break the system.
Unfortunately, they have no clue which part of the system is rigged against them. Thus, they will break the wrong part.
  quote
Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2016-05-03, 10:03

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinney View Post
And how did that turn out for you?

Just an observation of the way things unfolded. I didn't vote for him.
  quote
Chinney
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Ottawa, ON
 
2016-05-03, 11:10

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu View Post
Just an observation of the way things unfolded. I didn't vote for him.
I did not expect that you did actually. I meant it at a more general level, referring to how things further unfolded after the election. Often - generally even - the "screw you" impulse in politics does not lead to positive results.

When there's an eel in the lake that's as long as a snake that's a moray.
  quote
Frank777
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Toronto
 
2016-05-03, 13:16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinney View Post
I did not expect that you did actually. I meant it at a more general level, referring to how things further unfolded after the election. Often - generally even - the "screw you" impulse in politics does not lead to positive results.
Former Toronto mayor David Miller was part of the 'progressive' (socialist for the US) side which sees government as the great benefactor, primarily to union interests, social activists and artists, all of whom do their part as expected during municipal election campaigns. Miller oversaw a massive garbage strike that polluted pretty much every city park and killed his re-election chances, and then he saddled Toronto with a ridiculously naive streetcar purchase that we still have yet to recover from.

Given that kind of disrespect and administrative chaos on the side of the elite/establishment candidates, there are plenty of people in Toronto that would still elect Rob Ford all over again, even knowing about his addiction issues.

In short: yes, Trump has a shot at this.
  quote
709
¡Damned!
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Purgatory
 
2016-05-03, 13:49

Of course he has, and the minute he gets federal funding, watch out. He will raze Hillary.

Myself, I have a soft spot for Trump. I did a thing a few years ago about Trump and his family and whatnot, and the guy is entirely likable. I had ~20 hours of footage and B-roll to sift through, and in that was a lot of cute moments with his kid(s) and wife, his adult kids being funny and human off-screen, and in general he came off as a guy that lucked into money and used it as he could. Not particularly smart in any way, but a decent family guy.

That said, as the leader of The Free Great Good eh, OK World, Trump is obviously a terrible choice. Worse than Hillary? Maybe. Not worse than Cruz by a longshot.

So it goes.

Last edited by 709 : 2016-05-03 at 14:25.
  quote
Bryson
Rocket Surgeon
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The Canadark
 
2016-05-03, 14:59

Quote:
Originally Posted by Matsu View Post
In Toronto we elected Rob Ford just because we were sick of the rest of them. The establishment candidates didn't know what hit them - leading up to 2010, none of the political pundits were able to see it, not 18 months before, or even 12, but with 3 months to go, he was in an insurmountable position. And, all around southern Ontario municipal incumbents were getting trounced - which is rare in Municipal politics in this part of the world. But everyone decided, simultaneously it seems, that they were sick and tired of their municipal leaders.
In many way, Rob Ford was the Prototype for Trump's run. The scandal-proofed candidate. Politics without shame. It's actually very effective.
  quote
709
¡Damned!
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Purgatory
 
2016-05-03, 15:54

And 'anti-establishment' in that none of the voters are smart enough to even know what the 'establishment' is or what it's ostensibly part of. If I could sit back and watch it burn I'd be delighted, but unfortunately I have an arena seat, and the exit doors are chained. :/

So it goes.
  quote
kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2016-05-03, 16:02

Quote:
Originally Posted by 709 View Post
And 'anti-establishment' in that none of the voters are smart enough to even know what the 'establishment' is or what it's ostensibly part of. If I could sit back and watch it burn I'd be delighted, but unfortunately I have an arena seat, and the exit doors are chained. :/
Nah. There's still a door most people don't know about. It's beneath the bleachers and behind the stale, expensive beer vendor. You'll have to crawl through some muck and goo, but it leads straight outside.

[Wonders to self: Should I tell him it leads to an open sewer?]

Take the red pill!

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Matsu
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2016-05-03, 16:04

Miller actually did well gaining lots of administrative freedom for Toronto, not so well in exercising it...
  quote
709
¡Damned!
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Purgatory
 
2016-05-03, 16:06

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer View Post
Nah. There's still a door most people don't know about. It's beneath the bleachers and behind the stale, expensive beer vendor. You'll have to crawl through some muck and goo, but it leads straight outside.

[Wonders to self: Should I tell him it leads to an open sewer?]

Take the red pill!
Now I know where you're hiding your redstone stash. Huzzah!
  quote
Chinney
Veteran Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Ottawa, ON
 
2016-05-03, 19:37

Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post
Former Toronto mayor David Miller was part of the 'progressive' (socialist for the US) side which sees government as the great benefactor, primarily to union interests, social activists and artists, all of whom do their part as expected during municipal election campaigns. Miller oversaw a massive garbage strike that polluted pretty much every city park and killed his re-election chances, and then he saddled Toronto with a ridiculously naive streetcar purchase that we still have yet to recover from.

Given that kind of disrespect and administrative chaos on the side of the elite/establishment candidates, there are plenty of people in Toronto that would still elect Rob Ford all over again, even knowing about his addiction issues.

In short: yes, Trump has a shot at this.
I don't disagree that Trump has a shot at this. Mayor Ford is the analogy we are talking about, and Ford won. And as you say, many would have voted for Ford again, although it is unlikely that he would have had enough support to be reelected. Where we disagree, I think, is in the assessment of whether he was other than a unmitigated disaster as a mayor. And not just because he had addiction issues.

But enough about Toronto mayoral politics, as fascinating as they are On a more general level, what I find interesting is the use of the words "elites" and "establishment", when it comes to political analysis and argument. By your measure, they would appear to be those representing or associated with "union interests, social activists and artists". But those groups hold relatively little power. The power of unions in North America has declined greatly in the last 30 years. Social activists have very little hard power. And as for artists, . To see the real power, follow the money. Ford was part of the money and represented the money in his political decisions. Trump is part of the money.

Edit: And just to clarify, my view is that Hillary almost certainly would represent the money as well, in her own way. I think that she has better judgement and temperament for the Presidency than Trump, although that is setting the bar pretty low. She is conservative - far too conservative for my taste - and aside from her stance on a couple of hot-button social issues, could fit in as a traditional Republican candidate. As for Sanders, I don't think that he would have the ability to get anything done in Washington at all. Hillary is probably the best of a bad lot, IMO.

When there's an eel in the lake that's as long as a snake that's a moray.

Last edited by Chinney : 2016-05-03 at 22:10.
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El Gallo
Formerly “MumboJumbo”
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
 
2016-05-03, 22:20

Listen Liberal by Thomas Frank

Quote:
Do you think there’s a connection between the fact that the Democratic Party has turned against workers and the rise of Donald Trump?

Yes. Because if you look at the polling, Trump is winning the votes of a lot of people who used to be Democrats. These white, working-class people are his main base of support. As a group, these people were once Democrats all over the country. These are Franklin Roosevelt’s people. These are the people that the Democrats essentially decided to turn their backs on back in the 1970s. They call them the legatees of the New Deal. They were done with these guys, and now look what’s happened—they’ve gone with Donald Trump. That’s frightening and horrifying.

But Trump talks about their issues in a way that they find compelling, especially the trade issue. When he talks about trade, they believe him. Ironically, he’s saying the same things that Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are saying about trade, but for whatever reason people find him more believable on this subject than they do Hillary Clinton.
Interesting in that the author notes that Trump is basically a creation in part of the Democratic Party turning their backs on a large chunk of their traditional base. His prior book was "What's the Matter with Kansas?" In that book he blamed the people who were voting against their interests, but the question now is were they really? If the Democratic Party tossed them starting in the 1970's, where were they supposed to go?

I think he is right about the problem but wrong about the outcomes with regard to Democratic Presidential prospects. When looking for analogous campaigns to this one, I think we will find ourselves thinking about Scott Brown vs Martha Coakley. Coakley lost to Brown and then later lost to Baker in a campaign for the governorship. Coakley as a candidate just seems unable to connect with enough voters to get her campaign across the finish line even in a state like Massachusetts. I suspect the presidential campaign will unfold in a very similar manner.
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Dr. Bobsky
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: UK's most densely packed city. It's not London...
 
2016-05-04, 17:49

Scott Brown, a lawyer, elected representative, before being elected to the Senate for one term is not a Trump. You might suggest Baker is, but he at least was involved in Government for a long period before becoming a 'businessman.' And certainly, Coakley is not a Clinton....
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kscherer
Which way is up?
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2016-05-06, 16:50

So, you guys voting for Hillary Trump or Donald Clinton?

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turtle
Lord of the Rant.
Formerly turtle2472
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Upstate South Carolina
 
2016-05-06, 20:18

Beer.

I don't even drink beer.
  quote
psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2016-05-06, 21:13

If someone told me 10-15 years ago, "hey, out of 300M+ people to pull from, guess which two unqualified assholes this country will actually make the two frontrunners for the Oval Office gig?", I would've laughed him out of the room when I heard the names (after smacking him in the head for wasting my time with such a lame, weak attempt at being a smart-ass/troll).

This isn't even funny anymore.
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