[chucker]

Originally Posted by kscherer This seems like a logical approach to me.

I think that's right, yes. There's too much of a risk of misinformation.

(Such as from POTUS. Sigh.)

[turtle]

I already work from home, but my company HR rep sent out an email telling those that do work in the office to work from home now. They are based out of Silicone Valley so it isn’t a horrible shock. More and more companies seem to be going this route and it makes sense.

[PB PM]

Seem to make sense. For most people going an the office is a waste of time anyway.

We now have over 20 cases of Coronavirus 19 here in BC. Most of them from people who went to China or Iran. Now we have 2 cases in seniors homes that we cannot link the source to, which is not a good sign. No deaths, and most are recovering.

[PB PM]

More logical and good information at Ars

[chucker]

As always, Our World in Data really sets a benchmark on how informative journalists should be: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Impressive.

Like, yes, that's way too much information for the average citizen to digest, but… have a question like "hey, what are the symptoms"? Here you go, in a chart:



Much better than the press's typical "common symptoms include blah blah blah". Got a fever? Could be COVID-19! Got vomiting or diarrhea? Probably not COVID-19.

But, yes, the Ars article also looks pretty damn good!

[Bryson]

I work in the Event Industry (although, nowadays, in a more tangentially related field) and the current rash of conference and event cancellations is about to extract a heavy toll on the people who work these events.

Everyone and their dog is falling over themselves to cancel their events, and it's almost reached "mass hysteria" levels. This is going to be ugly.

[turtle]

I was noticing that when even the Minecraft event was cancelled. While I understand prudence, this is going overboard if you asked me. More often than not, it is people screaming "there's a lion in the streets" so they just stay home and do nothing.

Haven't any of these people seen War of the Worlds?

[crazychester]

Y'all need to listen to billybob.

The world is about to change.

[Ryan]

I've been working from home for a week now. All our APAC offices are closed plus Seattle and (I'm guessing) NYC this week. Everyone else is strongly encouraged to work from home and I frankly wouldn't be shocked if we just closed down globally.

[turtle]

The real perk of this "outbreak" is that businesses are realizing more and more that working from home is a very valid and good option. I love it and have for the last years years I've been home. Sure I have to be disciplined to actually do my job and not just play Xbox or Minecraft... but it is little different than sitting in a cubical and surfing the web or playing on your phone.

[addabox]

Originally Posted by crazychester Y'all need to listen to billybob. The world is about to change.

This. I had dinner over the weekend with friends that were completely contemptuous of "media fear-mongering" and sure that the threat was being vastly overblown. But the media can exploit the fuck out of an actual crisis. Everything I've read (from actual epidemiologists) suggests that: 1) the current numbers in the US are vastly undercounted due to the relative paucity of testing to date, and that 2) infection rates (again, starting from far more cases than tallied so far) can be expected to double every week. We can't know for sure, of course, but it's not unreasonable to assume that we could see upwards of 30 million infected in the US. Given the severity/hospitalization rates/mortality rates we've seen so far, our health care delivery system will be completely overwhelmed far before we reach anything like those numbers. That's not "panic", that's a completely supportable conclusion based on what we know about the virus and previous pandemics.

Again, it's possible the virus will subside on its own but there's no real reason to assume that. The two places that seem to have successfully mitigated the impact are China, which of course used draconian techniques that would never fly in the west, and South Korea, who jumped on testing and follow up hard and early. We're well past that point here and can expect something more along the lines of Italy. All we can do now is try to slow down the spread enough so that the caseload at any given time doesn't swamp out available resources.

[kscherer]

From Joe Rogan podcast #1439; Michael Osterholm

Disclaimer: They talk about more than just COVID-19

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info.

Excellent interview. Especially enlightening is Dr. Osterholm's prediction that the impact on Chinese-controlled supply chains will be more devastating than COVID-19 itself, especially as regards the fact that China and India are the [almost] sole suppliers of far too many of the world's necessary medical supplies and equipment.

I find his position on closing schools especially intriguing. 1) Children are far less susceptible to illness related to the virus (although they can spread it); and 2) More importantly, closing schools results in fewer health care workers available because they have to stay home with their children, which results in less workers available to staff hospitals.

Edit: It gets really crazy why this guy predicts that these types of diseases will continue to originate in China. I won't give it away, but I'll give you a hint: Enjoy your ferret sandwich!

[709]

Originally Posted by kscherer Enjoy your ferret sandwich!

"Previously on Fear Factor..."

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by 709 "Previously on Fear Factor..."

Yeah, no kidding!

[709]

I liked Joe in that, as I did News Radio. Not much of a fan of his podcast though. *shrug*

[709]

Republican response, basically.

[crazychester]

Here's what the beginning of the collapse of a first world health system looks like from the perspective of a couple of front liners.

Here.

And another.

There will be Wuhan type lockdowns. China didn't do what they did in Hubei province because they're an authoritarian regime. They did it because they saw the freight train that is the complete breakdown of social order resulting from wide scale fear and panic hurtling towards them. And because they realised the virus sets the rules. Either accept those rules and play by them or lose.

How draconian the lockdowns are will depend in part how late governments leave it and how prepared they are to follow South Korea's lead and throw open the chequebook to incentivise people to do the right thing, regardless of the cost.

I started looking at this closely around January 20. Within a few days I'd come to the same conclusion as Bruce regarding the seriousness of the threat. By the time this thread started, my plans for how I was going to survive being locked down for a considerable length of time were well underway. I have no plan should the morons who lead us fuck it up so badly that the social fabric is torn asunder. I accept that if that scenario arises, I am almost certainly fucked.

If you feel the need to shoot the messenger, knock yourself out. I will just feel sad for you.

If you think I'm trying to frighten you. Good. You should be frightened. Have your little fucking freak out and then get on with dealing with it so you are both physically and psychologically prepared for whatever the extremely scary future is about to throw your way. Stop feeling sorry for yourself. World shattering events happen all the time. They happened to my parents with the Great Depression and World War 2. They happened to my grandparents with World War 1. And now one is happening to us. We're not special. We're not immune (NPI).

I'll finish with the words of reddit u/myne from a few days ago. The second panic they refer to is The Great Australian Toilet Paper Panic of 2020. My preps did not include buying more than the usual bulk 24 pack I buy. Because there are plenty of ways to clean my arse without fucking tp.

There's an old saying related to stock markets. "He who panics first, panics best." If you sold all your stocks out of sheer irrational panic the day Lehman defaulted, you probably did alright. The first wave of panic was in January. The early birds started stocking up quietly. No one noticed. This is the second wave. The third wave will be when the logistics chains actually seize up sporadically. Forwhatever random reason. Missing parts, sick people, shut downs. There'll be plenty of food etc but it'll be in the wrong place. Anyone who has already panicked will cope ok.

[PB PM]

The biggest thing to fear is not COVID-19, it's people who needless stock up on stuff for no reason, but are dumb enough to not wash their hands, and other basic hygiene. If people had the kind of discipline needed to stop this thing in it's tracks the common cold would not even be an issue anymore. Like the idiots buying masks, when they aren't sick and don't need them. Like the fools who are buying tons TP, because they can make masks from them. Like the idiots who put big events before public health, because "the economy" will be damaged. I'm sure that if enough people die, that will screw up the economy too, but hey that requires a few seconds of thinking to figure out, so that's out too.

We live in an earthquake zone so we already keep extra food supplies, nothing to worry about on that front. I honestly don't see any need to freak out or go crazy. One things for sure, I'm glad I'm not in America. Sorry, but not sorry. Sorry for not being Canadian enough, eh.

[crazychester]

Originally Posted by PB PM One things for sure, I'm glad I'm not in America.

You just had to go and say it out loud, didn't you?

I'm sending them positive thoughts (sorry all outta prayers) by reminding myself that times of upheaval can have unexpected outcomes and the threat of economic and social collapse is a pretty powerful motivator. So I figure there's gotta be one possible timeline that ends with them getting rid of Trump and getting universal healthcare all in one hit.

[addabox]

Well, that or we go full Lord of the Flies. Seems like there are a lot more feral people around, lately.....

[PB PM]

Originally Posted by crazychester You just had to go and say it out loud, didn't you? I'm sending them positive thoughts (sorry all outta prayers) by reminding myself that times of upheaval can have unexpected outcomes and the threat of economic and social collapse is a pretty powerful motivator. So I figure there's gotta be one possible timeline that ends with them getting rid of Trump and getting universal healthcare all in one hit.

Yeah, I had to go there.

If history repeats itself, and it usually does, when shit hits the fan people lean towards the lowest common denominator. As a centralist I just sit back with popcorn and watch the crazy right and left wingers brow beat each other, life’s easier that way.

[kscherer]

I'm going to ask politely to end the political injection right now before it goes off the stilts. Please keep the discussion focused on the topic at hand, and let's leave the political finger-pointing for a different thread.

—

Originally Posted by addabox Seems like there are a lot more feral people around, lately.....

There are few places on the planet I would rather not be in a super-crisis than here, as Americans who go without one meal believe they are "starving to death".

And!

It's rapidly reaching a point where you cannot cough around here without someone looking at you like you just murdered their children.

When every sniffle represents the end of the world …

[709]

Originally Posted by kscherer I'm going to ask politely to end the political injection right now before it goes off the stilts. Please keep the discussion focused on the topic at hand, and let's leave the political finger-pointing for a different thread.

At this point the disease and the politics are intertwined completely, at least in the USA.


[edit]: Shouldn't this be in AO?

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by 709 [edit]: Shouldn't this be in AO?

Actually, yes.

[709]

Thank you Ken. You are a good mod.

I made a thread for throwing up hands and bitching.

[turtle]

We recently had two cases confirmed in my city. A couple who went on a Nile cruise came bag with extra baggage. I don't know how they are doing, but do know they are the first confirmed cases in my city.

Kinda wild watching everyone hit panic mode. I don't go into grocery stores so I have no idea how bad that looks right now.

[Ryan]

Originally Posted by Ryan I've been working from home for a week now. All our APAC offices are closed plus Seattle and (I'm guessing) NYC this week. Everyone else is strongly encouraged to work from home and I frankly wouldn't be shocked if we just closed down globally.

And there it is. Mandatory work-from-home worldwide effective immediately. All 4000-plus of us.

[turtle]

What will be really wild is when these companies realize how much money they save by having the building empty and less expenses there.

[kscherer]

Originally Posted by 709 Thank you Ken. You are a good mod.

You're welcome, and thank you. I love AN, and will do what I can for the forums.

[turtle]

If we as a society are going to shutdown and hide inside with no travel and no going to the office for the next couple of months, what is going to happen when all traces of this virus aren't eradicated? Isn't it just going to be a thing again? Like the normal flu/cold only different?

I mean, Ebola is still a thing.

I'm not suggesting we have "pig flu parties" like happened in my area (and I'm sure your area too) where people went to intentionally get infected to boost their immune systems. Why are we going to hide in our houses because there is a lion in the street?