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Apple: the company to build The Future™?


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Apple: the company to build The Future™?
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arteggio
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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2011-03-04, 13:03

I finally got around to watching the iPad 2 event video. While the one movie showing the iPad's unusual uses was up, an idea hit me when it came to the DJ app. I wanted to share and talk about this, thus.

You know how The Future is always depicted as having technology that basically does everything and more than individual pieces of hardware once did?

Basically, it seems Apple has brought us that future. Though there are thousands of examples, the most immediate one is that DJ app: with the iPad, a piece of software has replaced what was once a piece of hardware.

TV, jukebox, Scrabble, camera, musical keyboard, guitar, empty canvas to draw artwork upon. Fifty years ago, these were all physical things — and what else could they be? There was no other option. In the last couple of decades computers brought things like Scrabble to the screen, along with video and music.

Now, in Apple's 'post-PC' era, seemingly everything that once required hardware to offer an interface that didn't react to any external substances can now be a piece of software. (You can't build, say, a blood dialysis machine onto the screen of an iPad, but you could (theoretically and with a bit difficulty, I admit) replace a car's dashboard — steering wheel, gear shifter, and windshield wipers included — with a piece of software on a screen.)

Apple's obviously been the leader in getting us here. If it weren't for the iPhone and touch-based iOS, the smartest phone might still be a Treo and its stylus.

Though the technological future shall inevitably arrive, I think Apple might be the integral player for a long time to come (and I believe this has a basis outside of fanboyism). With their mountains of gold just sitting in the bank, they can leverage a lot of things.

I really have no idea, but it feels to me that one of the reasons the cheapest iPad is only $500 is because Apple can afford to not make the full R&D&design cost for all of its products from the MSRP (note, the true cost of the cheapest iPhone is what, $800?) Through the "Apple tax", Apple has been able to gain money, and sometimes I think they use it to help the consumership. Where did that giant North Carolina data center come from? If MobileMe goes free and it Revolutionizes™ the device-to-cloud interraction, it's because Apple has the money sitting around to do very many things if they so choose.

Microsoft, on the other hand. Surface, anyone? If MS had any idea of what they were doing, they could have beat the iPad into tablet existence. If they wanted to make an advanced tablet and put it in users' hands at $200, taking a bit of a loss for the sake of building a new category just to mark one check off on the to-do list of the future, they have way more money, and means, and publicity than Apple to do so. But no. And they scrapped the Courier. And Engadget just reported a rumor that the first MS tablet OS won't be out till 2012. But hey, the Xbox is nice and successful (when its ring doesn't red). Money is only a route to New Things when you know what the hell to do with it, and I believe Microsoft has no idea (and other tech companies with ideas don't have a lot of money).

In conclusion, I can safely see Apple building a lot of the technological infrastructure for the Future that movies like to depict.

I wouldn't be surprised if, some day in the next three decades, they are leaders in developing smart roads for cars to drive themselves on. Sure, they won't be the first (the technology exists today), but they might be the ones to make it work and not kill you because of a broken driver ( ). And one of our fellow 'Novers mentioned this in the iPad 2 thread I think (or was it an Engadget article?): Apple's not in the game to be first, nor to one-up other devices' specs just to have the best hardware. They're in it to do what hasn't yet been done. It's this mindset that makes the future.

The first spaceship to get us out of the solar system might just be possible because of something Apple helped to perfect, eh? (If we haven't committed global suicide by then, mind.) Maybe my personal robot overlord will have an Apple logo too.

So, what do you think? Does any of this seem not surrealistic or insane? Will Apple fall and leave use with Windows 500 and its permanent Start menu on a touch screen?
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joveblue
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Melbourne
 
2011-03-04, 16:57

I just wish they'd get their arses together in making the home theatre of the future...
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Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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2011-03-08, 20:02

Quote:
Originally Posted by joveblue View Post
I just wish they'd get their arses together in making the home theatre of the future...
Or at least start putting the home video format of 2006 in their products.

On topic: Not sure I can see Apple getting into personal robotics, but they definitely seem to have the clearest vision of the near future, at least. As I wrote in the iPad 2 thread:

"The $499 model remains the best value in tech. Every time I use my iPad I'm stunned that this is an actual thing, and that Apple sold it for under $500 and not, like, $1,200. It's just so remarkably thin and the screen is so big and it's so packed with stuff. You know that magic trick where the magician squishes his hat flat and then still somehow sticks his arm all the way inside and pulls out a bunch of scarves? That's how the iPad feels, to me. The iPad is that flat hat. It's like an on-screen window somehow made physical, or a display that is somehow pulling all this stuff out of the ether, because it sure doesn't feel like it has any chips inside. It's the sort of design I thought was only accessible to wizards, using deep magicks.

Or, as I felt when I first used mine, holy shit, it's the future."

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-08, 20:15

Remember before the iPad was officially unveiled, in days and weeks leading up, we were all talking about prices in the $799 and up range.

It blew our taters when that "$499" graphic dropped into place. I about fell out of my chair, as that was easily $400 or so below what I'd prepared myself for.

Yeah, it's amazing. My stepmom is getting one in a few weeks, as is my sister (that's what I heard from my Dad, anyway).

I know an older couple who I've been trying to get on the Mac for a while. But it dawned on me a couple of days ago that maybe they should just keep (for now) their Gateway with Vista on it, and, instead, snag at iPad for around-the-house surfing or travel. I think that would be easier for them to grasp, and maybe after they got their heads around it some, they may actually see the point in having a Mac (a bigger, more powerful version and they'd have good vibes about Apple quality and ease-of-use at that point).

Do the ol' Trojan Horse thingie...start them off with an iPad, let them ask about an iMac in another year or so.
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Chinney
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Ottawa, ON
 
2011-03-08, 20:27

I can easily see Apple being responsible for the Next Big Thing in a number of technology fields, including ones that have impact beyond computers, communication, and entertainment. I am really looking forward to what's next from them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post

[...]

Do the ol' Trojan Horse thingie...start them off with an iPad, let them ask about an iMac in another year or so.
Except the iPad is not the Trojan horse for anything else, it is the main event, if the hints from SJ at the iPad 2 event are any indication.

When there's an eel in the lake that's as long as a snake that's a moray.
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bassplayinMacFiend
Banging the Bottom End
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
 
2011-03-08, 20:50

I love my iPad. Like Robo said, when I first held mine in my hand doing whatever I was doing all I could think was, "The future is in my hands!".

It's easily the coolest piece of tech I've ever used.
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Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
 
2011-03-08, 21:14

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
Remember before the iPad was officially unveiled, in days and weeks leading up, we were all talking about prices in the $799 and up range.

It blew our taters when that "$499" graphic dropped into place. I about fell out of my chair, as that was easily $400 or so below what I'd prepared myself for.
And I was all, "I don't think the mass market is about to drop $800+ on a computer with no keyboard," and then Apple announced the $499 iPad with a keyboard dock and I bought it on day one.

Not one of my prouder moments. But I got the name right, at least! Before the announcement everybody was calling it the slimy-sounding iSlate, god knows why. (And on just the rumor of this being the name of Apple's offering, everybody at CES was suddenly referring to their tablet PCs as slate PCs.) And then Apple announced the iPad, and everybody made jokes,* and now nobody even remembers those jokes because they're too busy buying iPads.

*Shortly after buying an iPad I mentioned to my brother that I had one and he was all "lol, iTampon" and I was like, dude, I'm an Apple nerd. That joke was old before the iPad was even announced. And he was all "Well, not all of us are nerds...nerd!"

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
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drewprops
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Atlanta
 
2011-03-08, 22:44

Apple helps to give the future focus, but there ARE other innovators out there. Some of the "minority report" stuff from that light table thingy that Microsoft debuted was and is still interesting.

It's my feeling that we become lazy thinkers when we allow Apple to be our only vision of the future (as influential as they are).

For instance, a friend just emailed me this link to a video by Corning Glass which was made to sell the idea of a future "world of glass".

Corning Glass Video (YouTube link)

Much of the device interaction is brazenly inspired by Apple's iPhone and iPad and other similar touch devices like Microsoft's slide table thingy.

Maybe this could become a thread where we post links to stories about technological breakthroughs..... you could rename it "Building the Future" (??)


...

Steve Jobs ate my cat's watermelon.
Captain Drew on Twitter
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joveblue
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Join Date: Aug 2006
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2011-03-09, 02:51

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
Remember before the iPad was officially unveiled, in days and weeks leading up, we were all talking about prices in the $799 and up range.
And those are close to the prices we're getting from other companies! So our assumptions weren't completely unreasonable! Remember when Apple was the expensive brand?


The taste of my own hat was pretty unpleasant though.
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dmegatool
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: At home
 
2011-03-09, 03:16

Your video is broke Drew. Could you fix it so I can see the future please ?
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Dutch Pear
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Join Date: May 2005
 
2011-03-09, 04:59

Just looked it up, while they did "some" idea and design lifting from mostly iOS and also MS surface, it is actually really quite impressive and realistic IMHO about display/touchscreen possibilities in about 10 (?) years from now.

I'm pretty shure this is the kind of vision apple is furiously working towards in it's R&D labs!

One question springs to mind: much of the video is about having an iOS-like touch UI on pretty much any hard-surface: car-dashboard, fridgedoor, public transport shelters... Would apple be willing to expand iOS (dare I say: license) to enable the expansion of iOS to these scenario's?

Big opportunities there, and I would hate to see them miss the boat here because they want to supply the hard-and software and can't supply all the custom configuration and price-points needed. iOS is just so well thought through and full of attention to detail that I would hate to see Android or ms windows touch beat apple to this future meaning we'll be confronted by inferior UI design than shown (until now) by iOS...
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Kraetos
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Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Boston-ish
 
2011-03-17, 19:40

I don't think that Apple is going to shoulder the entire burden of the future.

What I do think is going to happen is that sometime in the next ten years, "the competition" will finally realize that Apple has been right all along, and that a successful design-minded tech company isn't a fluke. Gruber put it best in his "Apple needs a Nikon" piece:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gruber
I get the sense that many of these companies see Apple’s success this decade as an aberration — that the Apple bubble will soon pop and mediocre jumbles will return to the top of the technology heap. But what if it’s the other way around, and the aberration was Apple’s tepid success in the 1990s? It’s not just us — technology-design obsessed consumers — who would benefit from at least one company stepping up and competing against Apple on Apple’s own ground. Apple would too, in that competition would push them to do even better, and act as a preventative against hubris.
That first line sums it up perfectly. Packing features into a spec sheet is not going to cut it now that Apple is back on track. Before the future can happen, Apple really does need a Nikon, because to put it bluntly, I'm starting to get weary of the current tech landscape, where we have Apple doing it right and everyone else doing it wrong.

Apple's Nikon isn't going to be a hardware OEM. HTC/Moto/Samsung will never be able to give the iOS ecosystem a real run for its money as long as they are chained to Android. It's going to be an integrated vendor. I don't think it will be RIM because RIM is, well, utterly screwed, and the only way it's going to be HP is if HP absorbs as much of Palm's corporate DNA as they can. And even then, it's a crapshoot.

In general, the idea that one company can do the hardware while another does the OS needs to die. It's a user-hostile strategy and until someone else fully commits to an integrated strategy, Apple is going to continue to thwomp everyone in the tablet market. But it might be a while, and until then, it's all Apple, all the way. HP seems to have the right idea, but execution is everything, and we're still waiting for the first post-Palm webOS device. Microsoft really did pull the wool over everyones eyes on this front, and it will be a while until the blinders are all the way off. When everyone realizes that Apple's success isn't an aberration, and that "mediocre jumbles" are not going to return to the top of the heap like the Wintel machines of the 90's, then we will have real competition on our hands, and then we can move into "The Future."

Until Apple's Nikon comes along, Apple will continue to define computing. The iPad has a real good shot at Windows-like dominance. Maybe it will take that kind of dominance for everyone to realize that Apple is doing something right, and that the iPad bubble isn't going to pop like the Apple II bubble did.

Apple is changing the game, but everyone else is still playing by the old rules. Someone is going to have to throw the Wintel rulebook out the window if they want to take Apple head on, and I don't see this happening until Apple is so dominant they effectively are the face of computing. Until then, it's all too easy for the competition to write off the appeal of Apple products as "branding" and stay the course. Like I said, HP appears to be beginning to see the light, but they've yet to prove they can execute.

It has to happen eventually, because no one company can dominate forever, but it won't be any of the yahoos we have now in their current state.

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.—The Macalope

Last edited by Kraetos : 2011-03-18 at 16:14.
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Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
 
2011-03-18, 00:52

Good post. As I said in the tenth-anniversary iPod thread, Apple has changed the way people view technology. That's not going to "change back" any time soon.

In the book Inside Steve's Brain, Leander Khaney uses the allusion of PC-style thinking and consumer electronics-style thinking as two sides of a river, and in the 80s and 90s, Apple was on the wrong side. But now the world is very different. Apple isn't different — the Mac was the toy-like sealed computing appliance of its day — it's just that now everybody wants to be on their side of the river.

Technology is evolving in a more CE-like direction. I think it was the PC era — the user experience as purely software on an unemotional, irrelevant and often invisible engine — that was the aberration. Household references to "the computer" will soon sound hopelessly quaint, like people from the fifties trying to be sci-fi.

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
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arteggio
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Within
 
2011-03-18, 09:26

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robo View Post
Not sure I can see Apple getting into personal robotics, but they definitely seem to have the clearest vision of the near future, at least.
I was slightly exaggerating, just to remind everyone of our inevitable doom out of all of this. But as far as robotics go, maybe they are 'current' enough that all of their designs, on the inside and out, are really being taken into account more than they would have decades ago if such technology were possible. Apple started up as the odd-ball in a detached tech world, then shifted the market onto itself, to the place where the market 'should be'. Robotics seem to be starting in the right place for the most part. Anyway.


Quote:
As I wrote in the iPad 2 thread…
I don't think this was what I was alluding to (though it might have been something by you, Robo, if it was here on AN), but your words are spot-on nonetheless. When I first opened my iPad I knew it was, ahem, magical, but I never sat back and absorbed the fact that I was holding the future right now. (With a sunny 63º outside, I took my iPad out on the deck to read this thread, practically holding AppleNova itself in my hands. I finally consciously felt the future. In my hands.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by drewprops View Post
Apple helps to give the future focus, but there ARE other innovators out there.
That is true. I guess I was being a bit imperceptive when I handed Apple all the world's grandeur in my post.

Quote:
Some of the "minority report" stuff from that light table thingy that Microsoft debuted was and is still interesting.
I'm not trying to downplay some of the pre-Apple touch/future technology out there. What Microsoft has done for example with the Surface (the name of the light table thingy to which you refer ) was groundbreaking and still has its applications, especially, as it deals with this thread, since Apple hasn't taken on table-sized touch technology and might never.

On the other hand, my personal problem is that Microsoft physically creates something groundbreaking, then seemingly forgets about it. They didn't beat Apple to saturating the market with touch-based electronics that consumers totally want, but they could have. (!!!)

And maybe this is just the important difference between Apple and Microsoft's viewpoints on applying technology to the world, no matter what technology they have made or are capable of making. Last I heard (a couple years ago...), Microsoft was working with some business to get the Surface out there: telco stores like AT&T, hotel lobbies, clubs, etc. Apple? They put it in our hands. There's this Them-vs-You attention split between Microsoft and Apple, respectively, on how they approach their consumers. Apart from Apple actually making superior products, maybe that's an important contributor to Apple's über success.

Yet just a decade ago (before Apple got traction) it was Microsoft putting revolutionary Windows directly into the hands of the users. Did Microsoft just take a wrong turn on the path it pioneered?

Quote:
Maybe this could become a thread where we post links to stories about technological breakthroughs..... you could rename it "Building the Future" (??)
A thread like that could be handy. I think most tech breakthrough news has gone to the Daily News Thread? If it branches out (and I can figure out how to rename a thread; or a mod could do it) I'll change the name to something broader, or maybe a less Apple-specific thread would be better suited.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch Pear View Post
Just looked it up, while they did "some" idea and design lifting from mostly iOS and also MS surface, it is actually really quite impressive and realistic IMHO about display/touchscreen possibilities in about 10 (?) years from now.

I'm pretty shure this is the kind of vision apple is furiously working towards in it's R&D labs!
This brings me déjà vu. Even though Corning polished it and took their own view on it, guess who did this first, two years ago: Microsoft.

Considering no one has currently produced and put on market glass technology like that I suppose Microsoft isn't really at fault of anything, but it still reinforces my feeling that Microsoft could have been first at so many things, if only they would pinch themselves and get a grip on the current tech reality. The only recent thing from Redmond that feels like a breakthrough, that they aren't going to ignore and let get lost in the past, is the Kinnect. And sure, it's cool, but I would rather have interactive windows over a smart camera officially paired with only a game console.

I imagine Apple is working on this type of tech too though, since other companies have obviously already imagined it. If this is what ten years looks like (maybe Microsoft and Corning are part of a consensus demonstrating that it will be), I don't think Apple will miss out on it. It's a natural evolution from desktops, laptops, and handheld to an 'entity' of technology around us.

Quote:
One question springs to mind: much of the video is about having an iOS-like touch UI on pretty much any hard-surface: car-dashboard, fridgedoor, public transport shelters... Would apple be willing to expand iOS (dare I say: license) to enable the expansion of iOS to these scenario's?
I wonder this too. If you think about it, iOS is probably already elastic enough to take on everything shown in those videos with just a few additions. But will Apple let it...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kraetos View Post
I don't think that Apple is going to shoulder the entire burden of the future.

What I do think is going to happen is that sometime in the next ten years, "the competition" will finally realize that Apple has been right all along, and that a design-minded tech company isn't an aberration. …
Great post, and I hope it comes to fruition. With Apple/iOS threatening the foundation of the old-age phonemakers (RIM, Nokia, HTC), I can see those phonemakers falling behind and leaving generous space for new innovators to take over. A new company that doesn't have any old-age thinking in it could more readily aspire to the levels that Apple has set.

In general I hope Apple gets more competition no matter what as I would like a bit more choice. But in the meantime, if it takes the tech industry an abhorrently long time to figure out what Apple's known for a decade, at least I can trust that there is Apple.

Though with the speed Apple has pulled the dirt-ridden shag carpet out from the tech industry and replaced it with a smooth, simple, interactive floor, I don't think it will be long. The current companies will catch up or die and they're starting to see that.

As for HP, I still have a bit of hope for them. Their tablet looks like the only one I would seriously consider replacing my iPad with. But they need to hurry up already. (At least the TouchPad is rumored to be priced at $500 also, so it has a chance to compete with the iPad if it's as great as it looks.)
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Kraetos
Lovable Bastard
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Boston-ish
 
2011-03-24, 13:29

See, this is exactly what I'm talking about.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bloomberg
Apple’s sales may climb 54 percent to $100.3 billion this fiscal year, which ends in September, the average prediction of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Growth may slow to 18 percent the following year.
(emphasis mine)

Why? What indiciation is there that the Apple train is about to derail after 10 years of solid growth and three massively successful major product launches over the same period of time?

This mindset needs to die before competition can thrive again. Apple is not successful purely because of branding or customer loyalty. Apple is successful because they make products people want! Why is this so difficult to understand? Sometimes it feels as if the rest of the entire industry ("analysts" and competitors included) is 100% positive that the Apple bubble will (soon) pop, and in turn the vacuum will in turn be filled with Droids and Xooms.

That's not how it's going to go down, and the longer Apple's competitors stick their fingers in their ears and insist that Apple is a fluke and it's only a matter of time before the Apple sheep see the light, the further behind they will fall.

And it's not even like their "wait for Apple to die" strategy would work, even if Apple were to die. If Apple products suddenly lose their appeal, wouldn't Apple knockoffs also lose their appeal as well? It's as if they think the world will one day wake up and start hating Apple, but somehow continue to love Apple products, and therefore the best solution is to emulate Apple products. If they rationally believed Apple was about to fall off a cliff, wouldn't they stay as far away from producing Apple knockoffs as they could? The cognitive dissonance these companies can display astounds me.

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.—The Macalope

Last edited by Kraetos : 2011-03-24 at 13:39.
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-24, 13:50

The question to ask is "when have any of these allegedly in-the-know, connected industry analyst and pundits ever been right when it comes to Apple?"



Seriously. For years (I've been using Macs since 1993, and I've been following them closely, first via magazines, but then websites like this, starting in 2000 or so) I can't remember how many "Apple is in trouble" (or "doomed" or "needs to do this in order to survive", etc.) horseshit I've read and heard. And, naturally, it's only gotten worse since the iEra (when Apple has gotten legitimately, undeniably popular and performing so well).

You would think - after so many dead-on successes, user loyalty, high marks for customer service, products that are constantly improving on their predecessors, etc. - that some of these people would be like "we've misread the company for so long...they've obviously hit upon a formula that works and that the buying public responds to."

But nope. Some of them will never acknowledge such a thing. It would hurt their rep/cred in certain circles.



And all these years later, they're about the only tech company some people would ever seriously consider investing in (or buying products from). They constantly defy all this "conventional wisdom" and gloom-and-doom analysis.

So much so, that whenever I read or hear one of these typical reports these days, I automatically assume/read the opposite.

The day I'll start to get a little concerned is when a bunch of these guys are saying "Apple is in excellent shape, with a strong future of solid, popular products coming...we see good things for this company". That's when I know it's all over, and I'll start looking for a Dell and an Android-based phone.
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Kraetos
Lovable Bastard
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Boston-ish
 
2011-03-24, 17:16

But that's exactly what I'm saying. How much bigger does Apple have to get before "the industry" finally drops the horseshit? Because I'm pretty sure the horseshit you describe is partially responsible for why so many companies think that using someone else's OS is a winning strategy in the mobile game.

It's like they can't let the 90's go.

And while I'm here, more horseshit!

In response to her 4 "points":

1. But it's (a lot) easier to use.
2. But it's (a lot) more convenient than a PC.
3. Reviewers knew what to expect this time.
4. PDAs didn't lose popularity because they were bulky, they lost popularity because they had limited connectivity. Also, iPod touch anyone?

Anyone with half a brain can surely deduce these things for themselves, yet the horseshit hose is stronger than ever.

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.—The Macalope

Last edited by Kraetos : 2011-03-24 at 17:48.
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Xaqtly
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Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-24, 18:26

Quote:
Originally Posted by joveblue View Post
The taste of my own hat was pretty unpleasant though.
That's why I like to wear fruit headwear, a la Carmen Miranda.
  quote
addison
Formerly “AWM”
 
Join Date: May 2009
 
2011-03-24, 18:43

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
The day I'll start to get a little concerned is when a bunch of these guys are saying "Apple is in excellent shape, with a strong future of solid, popular products coming...we see good things for this company". That's when I know it's all over, and I'll start looking for a Dell and an Android-based phone.
What planet are you living on? Those comments are par for the course today. There will always be contrarians but I'm sure an overwhelming percent of Wall St./industry analysts have at least a positive rating on Apple with most saying it's a screaming buy. They expect the hits and the profits to keep on coming. Some have even taken to pushing the "deep bench" argument in case of a sudden Jobs departure. They want the gravy train to go on forever. So you might want to start shopping for that Android phone. The Evo 3D is looking pretty good.
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bassplayinMacFiend
Banging the Bottom End
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
 
2011-03-24, 19:08

If that lady thinks apple sold 15 million iPads solely on their sales pitch (really?!?) then I consider the rest of her article invalid.

Nothing has screamed "the future!" more than using my iPad.
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-24, 19:08

I'm living on the planet where, despite all the success and strong sales, there are still "trusted" industry insiders, writers, analysts, etc. who still predict gloom-and-doom, or measure Apple's success by silly factors most people in the real world have moved past (and are constantly offering "advice" that, if Apple ever took, would probably louse them up for good).

Living on Earth, last I checked.
  quote
Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
awesome
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
 
2011-03-24, 19:42

AWM: This is some of what pscates is talking about.
  quote
pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-24, 20:39



And let's be clear about (before I have to hear any shit from anyone): I'm not saying these folks have to buy and use an iPad. Or even lime them, personally.

But to go around this blind and oblivious, like a four-year-old with his fingers in his ear and eyes closed, is just really silly.

It's obvious to me that some of these writers and analysts can't see a single thing beyond spec listings (bigger this, faster that) and nothing else. They're kinda stuck in a period from a decade or so ago, when all their pet companies and products held sway.

Some of them, I suspect, simply can't stomach a world in which hippie, arty Apple, with their lightweight, toy-like and fruitcake offerings, is the word on everyone's lips. Apple, not others, are setting the pace (and records), and reporting quarter after quarter of growth, increased earnings, etc.

Such a thing just goes against all they've ever believed in, written about and worked for. Some are, no doubt, struggling privately with the notion that they're wrong. But when their reputation, readership and words are all they're banking on, it's hard to suddenly let on that maybe they've not been looking at things the right way.

All some of them cab do now is keep churning it out and hope Apple, at some point in the near-feature just craps themselves to death in public, just so they can (finally) claim "see? We've said it all along...".

That's all some of these jokers have to hope for. They've been wrong about everything else, so at this point it's pretty much down to Steve or Schiller getting caught up in some horrific sex/murder/drug-trafficking scandal.
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Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
awesome
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
 
2011-03-24, 21:45

Some of those quotes aren't just silly, they're self-contradictory. Like the first quote, from Paul Thurrott. “Problematically, the Android competition is just as expensive as the iPad lineup, so Apple obviously feels free to continue gouging consumers on iPad pricing.” Wouldn't the fact that none of the direct competitors can undercut the iPad on pricing suggest that Apple isn't "gouging customers on iPad pricing"?

And it's clear that Dvorak just doesn't get the iPad, and has no idea why anybody would ever choose it over an two-inch-thick notebook, or a Windows Tablet PC, or whatever. But where he goes wrong is insisting that all those customers are irrational for wanting something he doesn't want. As a core gamer who likes deep experiences I don't really "get" the Kinect, but I never said that I didn't think the masses would be interested. (I just had my doubts that it'd work as advertised.) And Dvorak doesn't just think that these iPad customers are irrational, he denies reality and insists that they do not exist. Even as late as December he is all "no one under 30 will ever buy an iPad!"

What planet does he live on?

Oh, and there's also a reference in there about all the people lining up to buy an iPad being "fools." Those damn Apple fanatics, always being the snobby ones to put people down for the products they choose. Oh, wait.

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-25, 10:44

From a 14-year-old, no less.

He gets it. Why some of the professionals and industry types don't (or won't) is now even more amusing.
  quote
Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
awesome
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
 
2011-03-25, 11:59

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0 View Post
From a 14-year-old, no less.

He gets it. Why some of the professionals and industry types don't (or won't) is now even more amusing.
I get asked about my iPad a lot. People ask me if it can do everything they'd do on a laptop and and you know what I say? Yes. There's some things a laptop can do that an iPad can't, of course, but things that normal people would do on their laptop? Most laptops are Word and Facebook machines. I think geeks sometimes forget that most people still use IE. Being able to install any app imaginable isn't exactly a priority, to these people.

I mean, the guy that interrogated me yesterday, he was impressed that the iPad had WiFi. "So you're browsing the Internet, right now?!?" He was very polite, but a power user he was not. Most people just want something that does what they want it to without most fuss. To a casual user who never felt entirely comfortable downloading apps on their PC, the App Store isn't going to feel limiting — it's going to feel like the best thing ever. It's like their iPad is 65,000 different things!

Nilay Patel said this perfectly on one of his last (FOF!) podcasts with the Engadget crew. Geeks like to put things in boxes — oh, is this is a netbook, or is it a sub-notebook, blah blah blah. But normal people don't care if the iPad is a post-PC device or a PC accessory. Ask them what their iPad is and they'll just tell you it's their computer.* Nobody's ever asked me if I thought my iPad was a worthwhile accessory. It's just, "do you think that's better than a laptop?" And I say "Yeah, I do."

*) And they wouldn't think of it as a "tablet" (and certainly not as a "slate"). Problematically, for Apple's competition, they'd just think of it as an iPad.

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
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pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-25, 12:53

Interesting little tidbit...the little pub I often go to on Thursday nights, I saw three iPhone 4s there last night, not including mine. I know that's not a big deal in the Bay Area or a larger, hipper city. Or maybe not even a big deal here in Chattanooga at one of the hipper, trendier 20/30-something downtown bars and clubs (I usually don't go to those places, but the few times I've been dragged, I see quite a few).

But this little place I go is more of a blue-collar sports bar (with a high redneck and biker customer base...your standard "fightin' and fuckin'" kinda crowd ), but there are all types mingled in (which is why I like it so much...it's like a perfect melting pot of a bar and there's always something to look at for a people-watching nut like me). But I've only seen 1-2 other iPhone there over the years. But to see three in one night, all iPhone 4 models, was surprising to me.

Feels like they're getting out there more, or that more people are buying them. One of the people who had one certainly looked the part (young, stylish eyewear, hipster T-shirt, etc.). But the other two were more like my Mom or her friends and not the usual "iGeek"-looking type.

I thought it was interesting to see that there. You'd kinda have to know this place to fully appreciate my observation. Kinda like walking into Wendy's and getting surprised with prime rib on your tray.
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Robo
Formerly Roboman, still
awesome
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Portland, OR
 
2011-03-25, 13:25

The only person I know in "real life" with an iPad 2 is a total bear...your standard "fightin' and fuckin'" kinda guy. It's so thin, he always looks like he's about to break it.

Apple products aren't just for young elitist hipsters any more. But as a young elitist hipster, I feel sort of left out now. I guess I can always use Apple products ironically.

and i guess i've known it all along / the truth is, you have to be soft to be strong
  quote
pscates2.0
Mr. Farmiga
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2011-03-25, 13:28

Make sure you're doing so with a ringer-Tee of a Care Bear or "The Golden Girls" cast photo, for maximum impact.
  quote
kscherer
The Ban Hammer
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Boyzeee
 
2011-03-25, 14:12

There are three types of computer users:

Those living in the past: These folks do not like change. They prefer their old Windows/Mac computer and that old software they've been using for years. They are satisfied with yesterday's internet and would prefer it if every computer company took the Microsoft approach and stifled technology as much as possible. They think that things are moving too fast and they just cannot keep up. There is nothing wrong with most of these people, as they are generally just casual users who want to be left alone. It's those entrenched IT guys that make this category feel so out of touch. How much of our industry and services are being crippled by IT shops that refuse to upgrade, no matter what the cost? by old, archaic websites that refuse to climb out of the HTML of 1995? the slobbish Adobes of the world who think that write-once, run-forever software is the wave of the future? These people treat the iPad like a toy, viewing it as unnecessary and evil. It is a walled garden that represents a direct threat to their "freedom". The iPad should be scoffed at and looked upon as a distraction from the reality of a universe which is going to get upgraded any minute, now.

Those living in the present: Most of us in here. We like our older stuff because there are a few things we need to be able to do on it, but we love our new stuff because it keeps us up to date. We take on new tasks and realize that the future requires that we keep ourselves in tune with emerging technologies. We see these technologies as useful tools to be snatched up quickly, not because we are part of some nerd-following cult, but because we want to be onboard the train when it departs for tomorrow land. To us, the iPad is the future, because it represents a paradigm shift in power, usefulness, ease of use, cost and availability of cool software. However, we are constantly reminding ourselves that there are other options out there, so we must keep an eye on them, because they might also be the future.

Those living in the future: Steve Jobs, Jony Ive, Ansel Adams, etc. These are the visionaries who are not afraid to look beyond the moment. Their eyes are not on the mountains they can see in front of them, they are on what they cannot see beyond the next pass. They wonder what the tide might bring; they see the forrest and the trees; they know that 2+2=4, but they also theorize that E=MC2; they perceive that mice are clumsy, old methods for interacting with computers and that, if you speak to one, nothing will happen (); they recognize that technology cannot sit still if it is to advance forward, and that forward is the way it will inevitably go, so we may as well imagine where it is heading. Yet, sometimes they march forward blindly, failing to recognize that E=MC2 would get a lot of people killed; that point-and-shoot would cause people to lose sight of the forrest altogether; that talking to your computer in public makes you look like an idiot (especially when it starts talking back) . To these people, the iPad is yesterday's technology. They talk it up to sell it, but the future is sitting in a lab in the back room behind multiple layers of locked doors, not yet ready for us to enjoy.



The big question: How does a company like Apple lead all three of these groups into the future?

The big answer: They don't. Period. End of story. Apple makes great products, and either people recognize the changing paradigm and climb on board, or they miss the train.

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
- Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. (Mat 5:9)
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