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Transformation: The Future Of Apple?


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Transformation: The Future Of Apple?
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Messiahtosh
Apple Historian
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2004-09-15, 10:20

Why not a thread that goes into wildly imaginative detail about Apple Computer's future?

1. iTunes/iPod- The iPod will someday be able to connect directly to the iTunes Music Store and purchase music, anywhere in the world. I see this as not muddying up the simplistic nature of the device, but adding to the "it's the music, stupid" mantra that Apple seemingly wants to follow.

2. The DRM will finally be opened up or licensed in some way, to remain the definitive #1 online tunes seller. Maybe Apple will have an iTunes Music Store by RealNetworks or something? Like the way the HP iPod is, except through software.

The PowerBook G5- A wildly anticipated product, Apple has already made it possible to fit a G5 into a 2 inch thin desktop computer, within 6 months I expect them to be able to have a G5 contained within a 1.2 inch thick enclosure.

The iBook- This product will get a redesign, shortly after the PowerBook goes G5, and just in time for the following summer/back to school season. I expect it to get 1.5 GHz G4s and airport and bluetooth will be standard.

PowerMac G5- MacWorld San Francisco in January should bring the coveted dual 3 GHz G5 processor to the PowerMac line. Superdrives should be standard in the line and RAM should be offered at no less than 1 GB, either that or Apple should lower the prices of their flagship pro product.

iMac- The iMac is enjoying new life right now, but it will need tweaks, reasonable upgrades, and Apple's attention to keep itself viable. I think it should be updated at MacWorld in January. It should offer a 2 GHz G5 and better graphics card options.

Digital Lifestyle Device- The iPod has indeed paved the way for Apple to open itself up to introducing products beyond computers, right? Well, Apple should compete in the portable digital content market, including personal video devices. Why not?

Tiger- Once introduced, Apple should market the hell out of it. No MyDoom viruses, no jpeg viruses. It's going to be powerful, cool, and fast.

iLife 05- Apple should incorporate the new Tiger technologies, right into iLife. I want to see a great use of Core Image and Video, that way these practically free digital lifestyle apps can be as powerful or more so than most companies $1k+ software packages. And for God's sake, iMovie needs some help.

"We are reviewing some 9,000 recent UNHCR referrals from Syria. We are receiving roughly a thousand new ones each month, and we expect admissions from Syria to surge in 2015 and beyond." - Anne C. Richard, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration
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Luca
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2004-09-15, 10:26



EDIT: Hmm...

http://www.banana-coconut.com/albums/lbgt/aab.jpg



I should actually respond to your post. Give me a minute.
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Messiahtosh
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2004-09-15, 10:27

That's the idea, Luca!
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Wrao
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2004-09-15, 10:28

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Luca
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2004-09-15, 10:37

Okay, I think your ideas are very much in line with what will happen. An iPod with the music store built in would be sweet. If it could do that, they could theoretically include a web browser, though I doubt they will. The iPod just is too small, with a black and white screen, and the controls aren't suited to web surfing.

That plays into your idea of a portable video player. I am a bit skeptical about this happening, since portable video players are currently pretty rare. Given that battery life in an iPod is already a concern (that hard drive eats batteries), it would only be worse with a color screen and a more powerful processor that has to go full-on constantly just to execute its primary function. It would have to be bigger, with a 3" or so screen, so maybe they'd put a larger battery in it that would allow it to last a while. Still, flash-based mobile devices have MUCH better battery life than hard drive based ones. My Palm has about the same battery life as the iPod, but it has a large color screen with a very bright backlight that is always on as long as I'm using it. That should give you an idea of how much of a drain the hard drive is.

I think Apple's just waiting for technology to catch up with their ideas. Music store on an iPod would be awesome, but right now it's not flexible enough for it. That would require a redesign. The larger video player device would be better suited to browsing the web and the music store, but Apple wouldn't want to force people into buying a larger and more expensive device just to get those features.

Whatever happens, I doubt the iPod in its current form will be going anywhere. It's too much of an icon, and too popular to risk changing too much. It might get another redesign or two, but the overall design will be about the same size with similar controls.
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2004-09-15, 10:39

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messiahtosh
Why not a thread that goes into wildly imaginative detail about Apple Computer's future?
iMac- The iMac is enjoying new life right now, but it will need tweaks, reasonable upgrades, and Apple's attention to keep itself viable. I think it should be updated at MacWorld in January. It should offer a 2 GHz G5 and better graphics card options.
I agree on a few of the things (Power Macs at 3.0GHz, redesigned iBook sometime in 2005, etc.).

But I simply can't see the above iMac scenario AT ALL. When in the hell has Apple updated a major product in four months? I seriously, seriously doubt there will be an iMac update at MWSF 05.

Especially considering the fact that we know damn well these things will probably just get good and ramped up in November or so (easy enough that all models are in ample supply at the various retail outlets and you can easily walk in and buy one, spur of the moment). Do you really see them being bumped in January? Come on.



The iMac G5 probably won't get updated until spring, at the very earliest. I can't recall Apple ever revving a product so soon after its unveiling (even the 15" > 17" iMac G4 took 6-7 months). But four months, on something based on the G5 (which is giving them supply fits as it is)?

I'd wager a hefty sum this ain't gonna be the case...
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Luca
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2004-09-15, 11:01

Yeah, didn't notice the "new iMac at MWSF" thing. I think it'll be closer to MWSF 06 than MWSF 05. Probably summer next year. But, uh... as much as I want to hope that it'll be updated in the first half of next year, my gut tells me it won't be until the second half of next year. That's just how Apple has been doing things in the last couple years - speed bumps every 8-10 months instead of every 5-7 months. What I do know is if they wait 13 months (like they did with the G4 iMac), they would be sending the new iMac to an early grave. That's what killed the G4 iMac, I think. If it had gotten a speed bump in mid to late 2002 instead of early 2003, and continued with a REASONABLE update schedule, then it might have done a bit better than it did.

I do agree on the specs, though. I'm not sure how high the PowerMacs will go in their next revision, but I'dd guess a minimum of either 2.0 or 2.2, 2.5 in the middle, and 3.0 on top. The iMac would get whatever the low end PowerMac has. It will also get a Radeon 9600 Pro/XT or a GeForce FX 5700. That is, once those video cards are old hat.

I also agree that the iBooks need a redesign. It's the oldest design Apple currently has, with no real changes (different color scheme, slot-load drive) since spring of 2001. The iBook's design is amazing - it says something that the aluminum PowerBooks are based on the iBook - but it's quite old and it probably needs a refresh just to keep people interested.

I'd love to see base RAM doubled on most machines. The $3k PowerMac ought to have 1 GB, just as the $3k PowerBook should have 1 GB as well. Lower-end pro machines should have 512 MB, as should higher-end consumer machines. Only the eMac and 12" iBook should ship with 256 MB. I think providing enough RAM to... um... actually use the computer out of the box might help Apple's image. How many times has some total non-computer person bought a Mac, then returned it when it was too slow, not knowing that it just came with an inadequate amount of RAM? Also, video cards should settle out to be 64 MB on consumer machines and 128 MB on Pro machines. Basically double what it is now and you have a good idea of how it should be within a year. 64 MB is no longer midrange video card territory. Even the cheapest budget cards ($50 FX5200) come with 128 MB these days, so there's no reason for Apple to have so many computers with so little VRAM. 64 MB is fine, but 32 MB is pathetic. I mean, come on, that was low end even three years ago.

This may sound like a lot of spec-whoring, but I just think Apple needs to keep up with the market in as many areas as possible. I remember in 2002 and 2003, Apple had lots of problems getting good enough CPUs in their machines, but they tried to outweigh it by including lots of nice features even on their low end machines. iBooks had Radeon 7500s, which were excellent for the time. They haven't really improved since then. I think the fact that Apple has better CPUs now has made them a bit lazy about improving the other aspects of their machines.
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psmith2.0
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Join Date: May 2004
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2004-09-15, 11:08

No, that's not spec whoring at all. Pretty reasonable requests, IMO...particularly for the money one lays out for this stuff.

I will go on record as saying this: if there's not a good, serious push from Apple in these coming months, and the update cycle is 8, 10 (or more) months and things like the graphics card seem to stagnate and hinge on older, "yesterday's news" cards/specs (with no way for the customer to address the situation either), the iMac G5 - after this nice initial launch - will peter out, just as the iMac G4 did...simply because it harbors all the same traits and potential pitfalls of the sunflower iMac. Many of the things people complained about on the iMac G4 are still present and unchanged in the iMac G5 (AIO, non-upgradeable graphics, an entry price well over $1,000, etc.) so that's something to keep in mind, once we all get beyond this initial "ooh, it's pretty and looks neat!" stage.



The shine WILL wear off eventually - it always does, no matter what the product or service is. And when it DOES, will the sheer RDF-enhanced "coolness" of it be enough to carry it through, if specs and performance and updates kinda stall out (and come few and far between), and with no true marketing push ever materializing from Apple? I doubt it, looking at recent history.



Believe me, I don't WANT that to happen. But I have to say...I won't be a damn bit surprised if it does. Check back with me, say, a year from now and let's see where things stand, won't you?



When people are saying the same things about the iMac G5 they just spent the past 9 or so months saying about the iMac G4, you can buy me a beer and I'll forgive you for ever doubting my keen analysis and reasoned, sensible take on the subject.


Last edited by psmith2.0 : 2004-09-15 at 11:26.
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Messiahtosh
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Join Date: May 2004
 
2004-09-15, 12:58

I still think it is possible that the iMac G5 will get a lot of attention from Apple, and it will get very frequent updates, and so will the PowerMac. IBM won't be struggling like this forever, and Apple will be able to deliver 6 month refreshes, I would hope.

If the iMac doesnt get a full update in January, I expect that they will bump the graphics card in it, and leave everything else the same, including the price. Here's hoping.

"We are reviewing some 9,000 recent UNHCR referrals from Syria. We are receiving roughly a thousand new ones each month, and we expect admissions from Syria to surge in 2015 and beyond." - Anne C. Richard, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration
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Luca
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2004-09-15, 13:00

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messiahtosh
If the iMac doesnt get a full update in January, I expect that they will bump the graphics card in it, and leave everything else the same, including the price. Here's hoping.
Won't happen. Apple's never done that before, they aren't going to start now. The iMac's video card will be updated in 8-10 months, along with the rest of the machine.
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blissed
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Join Date: Jul 2004
 
2004-09-15, 13:11

I'd like to see a flippin' price drop on the current Powerbook models. Sigh.
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Brad
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2004-09-15, 13:19

Quote:
Originally Posted by blissed
I'd like to see a flippin' price drop on the current Powerbook models. Sigh.
What? Why? They're priced just right unless you simply want lower prices for no good reason. Go look at prices of comparable PC laptops (and I don't mean some crap eMachine) and then add on your standard Apple Quality Tax™.

I think you'll find that the price is just right.

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psmith2.0
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2004-09-15, 13:20

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messiahtosh
IBM won't be struggling like this forever, and Apple will be able to deliver 6 month refreshes, I would hope.
Okay, fine. That would be cool, no doubt. But your "MWSF 05 iMac update" is based on a 4 month cycle!

You're hoping for a nice six month update cycle when IBM "gets it all together". YET, you're somehow predicting a 4-month update when everyone knows they're struggling a bit right now to meet demand!

Doesn't even reconcile and make sense. How does that work exactly?

These things were released September 1 (I know, August 31, but I'm rounding up for easy math). That's the last four months of 2004 they'll be in existence, with, as you know, 1-2 months of that will be simply ramping up and filling demand (well into October, I'd imagine).

So no, no iMac-related ANYTHING at MWSF 05. Just makes no sense in any way, shape or form. Some people might just be receiving the 20" they ordered immediately after the Paris keynote in late October or early November. They'll blow a gasket if Apple, two months later (after they've already waited two months) goes and updates them in Frisco.



Nope. No way. I'd stake my very life on this not happening (and I'm sure there are plenty of takers).
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ast3r3x
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2004-09-15, 13:41

If the limit of speed could be taken care of, I think iTMS on the iPod would be an awesome idea. I'm not sure how fast cell phone signals can transfer data, but a iTMS category in the iPod that inturn lets you browse possible music to purchase just like you would browse in the iTMS.
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Messiahtosh
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Join Date: May 2004
 
2004-09-15, 13:46

I'm not concerned with those who just bought the iMac, and neither is Apple really. I think it is completely within the realm of possibilities that the iMac will get a VRAM/graphics card update by MacWorld in January. I mean, once the PowerMac starts getting 128 and 256 standard, that leaves the iMac looking comparably famished. Apple is probably receiving a lot of complaints/feedback about the VRAM, so they may change it as soon as possible. It wouldnt be too hard for them to impliment, and it would push sales again, giving the iMac strength into a usually slow quarter.

"We are reviewing some 9,000 recent UNHCR referrals from Syria. We are receiving roughly a thousand new ones each month, and we expect admissions from Syria to surge in 2015 and beyond." - Anne C. Richard, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration
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kscherer
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2004-09-15, 15:23

I have to agree with Messiahtosh on the iMac video chip or VRAM upgrade around MWSF. However, I do not think that Apple will make a big deal out of it. If Powerbook updates and the 3.0Ghz G5 are around the corner, Apple will give that all the attention. Apple has upgraded the iMac in the past with little or no bell-&-whistle stuff.

And this I guarantee: If a G5 Powerbook or even a redesigned, dual-core G4 Powerbook is to happen at MWSF, there will not be any attention payed to ANYTHING else, including the 3.0Ghz G5. You guys might talk a little bit about the G5, but you'll all be if that new Powerbook pops up from the stage floor!!

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psmith2.0
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2004-09-15, 15:35

Not after four months.
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DMBand0026
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2004-09-15, 15:50

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer
And this I guarantee: If a G5 Powerbook or even a redesigned, dual-core G4 Powerbook is to happen at MWSF, there will not be any attention payed to ANYTHING else, including the 3.0Ghz G5. You guys might talk a little bit about the G5, but you'll all be if that new Powerbook pops up from the stage floor!!
Exactly, I believe that notebooks are now outselling desktops, so the full attention will be diverted to the improved notebooks.
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Wrao
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2004-09-15, 16:07

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad
What? Why? They're priced just right unless you simply want lower prices for no good reason. Go look at prices of comparable PC laptops (and I don't mean some crap eMachine) and then add on your standard Apple Quality Tax™.

I think you'll find that the price is just right.
I'm inclined to disagree here. a friend of mine got a pretty capable laptop(dell) recently 15.4" screen, 64mb gpu(9700 mobile), 512 RAM, 1.5 ghz processor(centrino), 80 GB HD, 24x r Combo drive. for $1499, it's also only ~1.5 inches thick, it doesn't weigh too much(maybe 2 lbs more than my book) it has 802.11g and bluetooth, and gets 4-5 hours battery life average(no joke)

Of course, If he put a super drive in there it'd be $1800 or so, but I took the super drive OUT of my powerbook AND had a discount, and it was still $2100

Sure, my 1.25 ghz g4 might out perform a 1.5ghz centrino at some things, and at the end of the day, his laptop is a far better value than mine. It's a damn shame it can't run OS X(which is worth a lot, but not $1000)

Sure, the NEW powerbooks have a better GPU, 1.5ghz, super-drive..etc. But ultimately I think that the powerbooks COULD be a bit cheaper. $200 or so across the board.
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kscherer
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2004-09-15, 16:19

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wrao
Sure, the NEW powerbooks have a better GPU, 1.5ghz, super-drive..etc. But ultimately I think that the powerbooks COULD be a bit cheaper. $200 or so across the board.
I would like to remind the cost-conscious folks that Apple's notebooks used to be a LOT more expensive. Do any of you remember those $4000.00 Powerbooks? Apple has shown a great trend: Powerbook prices are coming down while power is going up, if not slowly but surely, and continue to do so. The Powerbook G4 was $3499! Now the 17" G4 is $2999. Remember the Duo 280c? $3750!

I can see a new G5 Powerbook beginning at $2999. That's not much for a G5 portable! Also, the PC industry (DELL especially) produce laptops in quantities that far surpass Apple, making it much easier to charge less. However, the satisfaction ratings on those machines is also far less!

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
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Wrao
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2004-09-15, 16:21

Oh for sure. I remember when Apple notebook's where that expensive. I also remember when they first hit $2500 and I thought "wow! that's amazing for all that it gives you" It still is pretty good, but at this exact moment, it could be better. Obviously the game will change when they get g5s, if they had g5s $2500 would be a steal, considering they'd likely out-perform every notebook on the market.
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kscherer
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2004-09-15, 18:16

Quote:
Originally Posted by pscates2.0
Not after four months.
Maybe . . . Maybe not. Apple does take a bit of time between updates. It all depends on whether or not the Powerbook rebuild is ready by then. If not, Apple will have to give us something. A 3Ghz G5 could be considred something and minor iMac updates could be considered something as well. Of course, another Tiger preview is something and so is a 5GB iPod Mini! Then again, nothing is also something . . .

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
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Paul
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2004-09-15, 18:29

what was the point of the post above this one again? nothing is something?
ya'll need to do a bit more thinking and less typing...
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Messiahtosh
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Join Date: May 2004
 
2004-09-15, 18:44

Hmm, maybe I still have something useful to contribute around here...

One thing I left out

Airport Express with AirTunes-This product should see a revision or something will happen to the airport base station line. I think that either the Airport Express will phase out the larger brother (extreme) and get a redesign to be exactly like the Express with better functionality than the Express, as the Extreme is currently.

"We are reviewing some 9,000 recent UNHCR referrals from Syria. We are receiving roughly a thousand new ones each month, and we expect admissions from Syria to surge in 2015 and beyond." - Anne C. Richard, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration
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psmith2.0
Mr. Vieira
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Tennessee
 
2004-09-15, 19:46

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messiahtosh
Hmm, maybe I still have something useful to contribute around here...
Let's not go and get ahead of ourselves here. The jury is probably still out...
  quote
InactionMan
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2004-09-15, 22:25

I imagine the iMac will be updated around the same time that Tiger is released which I'm guessing will be around March or April.

I also think 2005 will be Steve Jobs' last year as CEO.
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kscherer
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2004-09-15, 22:55

Quote:
Originally Posted by InactionMan
I also think 2005 will be Steve Jobs' last year as CEO.
I won't speculate as to when the master leaves the company, but I would like to point out the general direction that Apple took the LAST time that happened: Can anyone say DOWN!

- AppleNova is the best Mac-users forum on the internet. We are smart, educated, capable, and helpful. We are also loaded with smart-alecks! :)
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kscherer
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2004-09-15, 22:57

Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul
what was the point of the post above this one again? nothing is something?
ya'll need to do a bit more thinking and less typing...
You're still typing? I'm using my thought helmet. So as it turns out, the more I think, the more mindless garbage winds up in print!
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kscherer
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2004-09-15, 22:59

Quote:
Originally Posted by Messiahtosh
The PowerBook G5-[/b] A wildly anticipated product, Apple has already made it possible to fit a G5 into a 2 inch thin desktop computer, within 6 months I expect them to be able to have a G5 contained within a 1.2 inch thick enclosure.
Do you think that 1.2 inch enclosure includes or excludes the hinged display?
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Messiahtosh
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2004-09-16, 01:11

Quote:
Originally Posted by kscherer
Do you think that 1.2 inch enclosure includes or excludes the hinged display?
Obviously includes, Apple's engineers would settle for nothing less...or should I say more?
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