[hmurchison]

Well it looks like that love affair between Steve Jobs and the Sony Exec during Macworld San Fran was stronger than many imagined. Apple will be pimping Blu-Ray.

Something is going on between these two companies. I'm getting the feeling that we're going to see a big surprise within a year. Perhaps a partnership (could be music related or video).

Apple and Sony have been quite cozy lately. Even Apple's Final Cut Pro video editor has announced support for some relatively Sony tech.

Blu-Ray is definitely ahead of the game where computers are concerned.

Sony and Apple. Lovers?

[thegelding]

personally torn on this as i like the fact that the toshiba group HD would not need all new players like blu-ray will...

basically who comes out first will likely get a huge jump...

as for apple and sony...hard to read...sony just threw a big challenge at apple with mp3 players coming out...but still waiting to see if sony puts in a bid for pixar distribution, that would speak volumes

g

[Franz Josef]

Originally Posted by hmurchison Well it looks like that love affair between Steve Jobs and the Sony Exec during Macworld San Fran was stronger than many imagined. Apple will be pimping Blu-Ray. Something is going on between these two companies. I'm getting the feeling that we're going to see a big surprise within a year. Perhaps a partnership (could be music related or video). Apple and Sony have been quite cozy lately. Even Apple's Final Cut Pro video editor has announced support for some relatively Sony tech. Blu-Ray is definitely ahead of the game where computers are concerned. Sony and Apple. Lovers?

My money's on Blu-Ray now. The HD guys have a less advanced product and it's hard to see Toshiba NEC Warner standing up against the like of Sony Matsushita Dell HP Apple in the marketplace. First Blu-Ray devices expected Q4 this year

[ast3r3x]

<deleted>

I've traditionally decided with Toshiba, but now I'm torn.

[hmurchison]

My money's on Blu-Ray now. The HD guys have a less advanced product and it's hard to see Toshiba NEC Warner standing up against the like of Sony Matsushita Dell HP Apple in the marketplace. First Blu-Ray devices expected Q4 this year

You might want to read this link first

http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186/4 it's very fair and balanced. Then you might want to check out www.hddvdprg.com

Let me explain why Blu-Ray is assumed to be superior in a nutshell.

Let's preface this by stating what the movie studio's goals are in a new format.

1. They want a HD format that is inexpensive yet has quality.
2. They want a HD format that fits on one disc saving costs
3. They want to amortize the costs of their pressing plants.

Thus you had 100's of companies joining the DVD Forum with the goal of creating a unified new architecture for the next generation DVD. HD-DVD.

Sony had been working on their ProData optical storage using Blue Laser tech for some time and evidently they saw the opportunity to branch out on their own. They left the group and took "friends" with them to create Blu-Ray.

So ...now we have a fractured strategy. What was once the design for a unified format now is a two horse race. The question is what horse wins? Let's sum them up.

Blu-Ray -

This is a strong thoroughbred indeed. 25GB of capacity in a single layer and 50GB for a dual layer. Sony achieves this by have a very narrow track pitch , pit length and numerical aperature. Sony achieves this by having a very small protective layer at .1 mm versus a standard DVD layer of .6 mm. This is why Blu-Ray discs initially came with a caddy. This is also why Blu-Ray has a definitive advantage in storage space.

The downsides are that this change in track pitch, pit length and NA are different from DVD in such a way that using todays pressing plants is not an option. Thus we gain the extra space but we lose any trace to DVD's lineage. Pressing plants will need to buy Blu-Ray specific presses which cannot be retrofitted to produce SD DVD. With Blu-Ray we break from the past and start anew. Red Laser support in Blue Ray is tacked on at best.

HD-DVD-

Because HD-DVD was designed to be the next generation DVD format it stays with its lineage by using the same disc structure and numerical aperture. HD-DVD is able to support red laser DVD quite easily as they have a single-lens optical head that supports red and blue diodes and many of today's pressing plants can be pressing HD-DVDs with 5 minutes of change over. Each individual HD-DVD disc can be stamped in about 2.8 seconds. A full second over Blu-Ray estimates. This translates into more discs stamped in a day and cost savings.

Summary -

HD-DVD was designed to be the natural successor to DVD. They have created and elegant solution that gives studios the 2hrs of HD content they desire at the lowest cost and least amount of expenditure for pressing plants. Sony has given us wonderful optical technology that eschews many of the design goals desired by the DVD Forum and movie studios. Because of that you are seeing a couple of things that are salient.

1. HD-DVD discs are easier to manufacture and to whit they have announced 89 titles for delivery in 2005. Blu-Ray has yet to announce any titles.

2. The HD-DVD groups are fairly confident to toss out $1k for the players. The Blu-Ray group must remain silent until they actually know what the players and discs will cost.

It is reasonable to assume given the infomation we have now that HD-DVD will remain the price leader for HD and should gain marketshare with a very price conscious population worldwide. I believe many of us will have two drives but if one drive had to be chosen HD-DVD would be the logical format in my opinion based on the facts.

[thegelding]

nice post...thanks for the info...

how i have felt also...thou apple throwing to blu ray (and knowing microsoft supports HD-DVD) makes me hope that blu ray finds a way to bring costs down and also support older dvd easily and well (not just a tacked on way)

g

[Franz Josef]

Originally Posted by hmurchison It is reasonable to assume given the infomation we have now that HD-DVD will remain the price leader for HD and should gain marketshare with a very price conscious population worldwide. I believe many of us will have two drives but if one drive had to be chosen HD-DVD would be the logical format in my opinion based on the facts.

You seem to predicate HD-DVD success on the grounds of cost and earlier availability - these do however seem unlikely to be the drivers. Much more likely that success or failure will be driven by the market power of the backers. If the Blu-Ray sponsors stay the course (and it is an if), it is much more likely to carry the day because they are industry standard settters and opinion formers of greater significance than the likes of Toshiba Sanyo NEC et al. They may switch horses in mid course - but HD-DVD would presumably have to generate significant momentum to force that sort of u-turn.

[hmurchison]

You seem to predicate HD-DVD success on the grounds of cost and earlier availability

That's business 101 Franz. If you're first to market and cheaper then odds are you win.

Make no bones about it the Blu-Ray format is killer. Built in Java layer, internet access, large storage.

But the question remains. Can this be sold to consumers who have a cheaper option in HD-DVD? History shows the the market isn't kind to the more expensive products in a competition.

It's lovely to have Dell, HP and Apple supporting your format but they don't run pressing plants and that's where Blu-Ray will win or lose this war.

[Franz Josef]

Originally Posted by hmurchison That's business 101 Franz. If you're first to market and cheaper then odds are you win. Make no bones about it the Blu-Ray format is killer. Built in Java layer, internet access, large storage. But the question remains. Can this be sold to consumers who have a cheaper option in HD-DVD? History shows the the market isn't kind to the more expensive products in a competition. It's lovely to have Dell, HP and Apple supporting your format but they don't run pressing plants and that's where Blu-Ray will win or lose this war.

For commodity products I agree price important, but new technology (intially at least) isn't at that end of the spectrum. Being first to market is more of an advantage, but needs to be measured against the marketing clout of the multinationals. We'll have to wait to see how this one pans out.

[thegelding]

mmmm....

apple supports blu-ray
micrrobrain...i mean microsoft supports HD-DVD

HD-DVD will win out of course...

and history repeats again as a inferior product wins

g

[Franz Josef]

Originally Posted by thegelding mmmm.... apple supports blu-ray micrrobrain...i mean microsoft supports HD-DVD HD-DVD will win out of course... and history repeats again as a inferior product wins g

hmmmmm..VHS v Betamax. I hope you're wrong

[baaron]

If HD-DVD wins out, will it have enough storage space for a 2hr flick at 1080p at a high-definition resolution???

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by baaron If HD-DVD wins out, will it have enough storage space for a 2hr flick at 1080p at a high-definition resolution???

Yes.

ATSC broadcasts at 19.8 Mbps. Thus

19.8 * 60 seconds= 1188Mb per minute

1188 * 60 minutes= 71,280 Mp per hour

71,280 divided by 8 = 8910. So 8.91 GB per hour.

HD-DVD supports 15GB single layer and 30GB dual layer
Blu-Ray supports 25GB single layer and 50GB dual layer

So the time would be 1.68 hours for SL HD-DVD and 3.36 for DL

or 2.8hrs for Blu-Ray SL and 5.61 for Blu-Ray DL

However things change when you move to movies encoded in the more efficient AVC or VC-1 codecs. I'd expect that a HD movie could be shown with equivalent quality at 14Mbps. Which would drop the bandwidth to 6GB per hour increasing total time for both.