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Halo effect: iPod, Tiger...we need another hit.


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Halo effect: iPod, Tiger...we need another hit.
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Satchmo
can't read sarcasm.
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Toronto, Canada
 
2005-05-04, 21:58

Apple has garnered accolades for Tiger and the iPod is a worldwide phenomenum. But I'm sensing Apple needs one more "hit" to really make a dent in marketshare and mindshare.

Yesterday's revised iMacs were a great start...but ultimately it's still just a desktop (albeit the best looking one). A revised widescreen iBook this month might perk up a few eyebrows here, but it's still just a laptop.

Perhaps it's the iPhone or a variation of it. Or maybe it's some integrated media system. But what I'm really getting at is the need of another homerun product that really puts Apple on the map. One that will give people no excuse to switch platforms.
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torifile
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Join Date: May 2004
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2005-05-04, 22:04

Maybe the hit is the mini. It'll take a bit of time for it to develop. (Remember the iPod's been out for almost 4 years.) I think we'll see the impact of the mini within 2 quarters.
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BlueRabbit
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Join Date: May 2004
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2005-05-04, 23:33

Quote:
Originally Posted by torifile
Maybe the hit is the mini. It'll take a bit of time for it to develop. (Remember the iPod's been out for almost 4 years.) I think we'll see the impact of the mini within 2 quarters.
Definitely. According to that other site, the mini is between a quarter and a third of all Macs sold. That's pretty insane. However, I still think that Apple something new and revolutionary to really push it on top - think original Mac/Newton. Right now Tiger is just an evolution of Mac OS X, and the iPod is just getting better, but nothing really earth-shattering is happening.
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BarracksSi
BANNED
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Washington, DC
 
2005-05-04, 23:34

People (that is, non-Mac, non-geek "civilians") are only beginning to realize that Apple still makes computers and that they actually work really well. Word is, too, that Apple's planning to do more Mac-centric commercials instead of all the iPod spots out there.

Tiger is the new hit, but nobody will realize it because they'll be paying attention to how well the computers themselves work.
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MCQ
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2005-05-04, 23:47

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueRabbit
Definitely. According to that other site, the mini is between a quarter and a third of all Macs sold. That's pretty insane.
Yeah. That leads me to believe that Apple's CPU sales could really be getting some halo effect, and not just from the mini, but the iBook and iMac as well. Continued sequential growth from all three lines would be a very positive sign.

On a sidenote - as far as the Shuffle - according to NPD it has 58% marketshare of flash-based MP3 players. That's also impressive.

http://news.com.com/2060-10793_3-7332.html?tag=nefd.bl
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Messiahtosh
Apple Historian
 
Join Date: May 2004
 
2005-05-05, 02:14

Quote:
Originally Posted by MCQ
Yeah. That leads me to believe that Apple's CPU sales could really be getting some halo effect, and not just from the mini, but the iBook and iMac as well. Continued sequential growth from all three lines would be a very positive sign.

On a sidenote - as far as the Shuffle - according to NPD it has 58% marketshare of flash-based MP3 players. That's also impressive.

http://news.com.com/2060-10793_3-7332.html?tag=nefd.bl
I just saw this, and yeah, it's very incredible. It's only been 5 months...
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Wrao
Yarp
 
Join Date: May 2004
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2005-05-05, 02:57

There were some rumors over at .com pertaining to a new apple ad campaign. Supposedly geared to advertise their computers for a change. Personally, I think that a strong, persuasive ad campaign for the iMac g5 and the mac mini would greatly widen and expand the fabled 'halo' effect.

I don't think apple really needs another 'hit' as it were. They have been firing on all cylinders for nearly 3 years now. They just need to aggressively and thoroughly get the word out about all their other products. Some ad campaign that highlighted the fact that apple makes iPods and computers and that their computers are just as desirable as their iPods, could work wonders on their market share.

I doubt apple will ever really escape the market share void, but I could easily see them rising to at least 5% in the next few years.
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torifile
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2005-05-05, 07:36

Merrill Lynch predicted 4% by the end of the year. That would be almost double where they are now. Article.
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bassplayinMacFiend
Banging the Bottom End
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
 
2005-05-05, 07:52

See, I wanna know what Merrill Lynch is smoking though. They say Apple 'could sell 10 million computers in the US alone' this year. Apple sold just over 1 million computers last quarter. Roughly 40% or so of that million computers were sold outside the US. How are US sales going to go from ~600,000 per quarter to 2.5 million per quarter in US sales? Not only that but you'd still need to spread 1.9 million computers over the remaining 3 quarters meaning Apple would need to sell just over 3.1 million computers per quarter for the next 3 quarters in the US alone. If the 60/40 ratio stayed the same that would mean Apple would sell 5.167 million CPUs per quarter worldwide.

The numbers just don't make sense to me.
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Brad
Selfish Heathen
 
Join Date: May 2004
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2005-05-05, 08:03

Right. Apple hasn't seen figures like that, well, ever.

Take a peek at the graphs attached to this thread for some interesting historical data.
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bassplayinMacFiend
Banging the Bottom End
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
 
2005-05-05, 08:45

Not only do Merrill's numbers not add up, wouldn't a doubling of market share suggest selling ~2 million CPUs per quarter? Even using total numbers that doesn't add up to 10 million (2x4=8 last I remember) and that's worldwide, not just US sales.
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torifile
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2005-05-05, 08:46

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad
Right. Apple hasn't seen figures like that, well, ever.

Take a peek at the graphs attached to this thread for some interesting historical data.
Do you WANT to depress us on Cinco de Mayo?
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snipe 2
New Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
 
2005-05-07, 07:12

Quote:
Originally Posted by bassplayinMacFiend
See, I wanna know what Merrill Lynch is smoking though. They say Apple 'could sell 10 million computers in the US alone' this year. Apple sold just over 1 million computers last quarter. Roughly 40% or so of that million computers were sold outside the US. How are US sales going to go from ~600,000 per quarter to 2.5 million per quarter in US sales? Not only that but you'd still need to spread 1.9 million computers over the remaining 3 quarters meaning Apple would need to sell just over 3.1 million computers per quarter for the next 3 quarters in the US alone. If the 60/40 ratio stayed the same that would mean Apple would sell 5.167 million CPUs per quarter worldwide

The numbers just don't make sense to me.
No they don't. But if you read the Merrill story (above link) you will see they say that TIGER- OSX will run on 10 million computers in the U.S. this year.
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atomicbartbeans
reticulating your mom
 
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2005-05-07, 08:08

Ahh, Apple doesn't need another hit. They've done more innovation in the past 4 years than the PC industry has in the past 15. On paper, Apple clearly should have the upper hand. All they've been lacking this whole time is publicity. The average Mac-muggle knows what Windows XP is. OS X? No. Apple's current product line could send it through the roof if it was better advertised. Apple needs to advertise on television and in print a. OS X and b. its current Mac lineup. Those, done a la iPod commercial would boost sales (hence market share) tremendously. I don't know why they've been too bashful to start doing so already.

Anyone here with good Motion/Final Cut skills wanna design a mac commercial for Apple?

You ask me for a hamburger.
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BarracksSi
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Join Date: Jul 2004
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2005-05-08, 21:03

Quote:
Originally Posted by atomicbartbeans
Apple needs to advertise on television and in print a. OS X and b. its current Mac lineup. Those, done a la iPod commercial would boost sales (hence market share) tremendously.
Commercials for the Macs themselves have been done like that, and they really didn't help a whole lot. They served to make the Mac seem even more like a fashion device and toy. That was only more fuel for the turbo-Window-geeks to say that the Mac isn't a real computer.

Quote:
I don't know why they've been too bashful to start doing so already.
Where would they start? Have a Powerbook user sit down at a Starbucks and instantly join the wi-fi network? Show a mom come home and publish her latest digital photos to her .Mac web page?

The only way that I could think of Apple to truly show off OSX is to show those things and how easily they're done, and this can't really be done without a whole range of commercials.
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